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Cellphones

Q4 2022 Was a Disaster For Smartphone Sales, Sees the Largest-Ever Drop (arstechnica.com) 82

The International Data Corporation has the latest numbers for worldwide smartphone sales in Q4 2022, and it's a disaster. Shipments declined 18.3 percent year-over-year, making for the largest-ever decline in a single quarter and dragging the year down to an 11.3 percent decline. With overall shipments of 1.21 billion phones for the year, the IDC says this is the lowest annual shipment total since 2013. Ars Technica reports: In the top five for Q4 2022 -- in order, they were Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo -- Apple was, of course, the least affected, but not by much. Apple saw a year-over-year drop of 14.9 percent for Q4 2022, Samsung was down 15.6 percent, and the big loser, Xiaomi, dropped 26.5 percent. For the year, Samsung still took the No. 1 spot with 21.6 percent market share, Apple was No. 2 with 18.8 percent, and Xiaomi took third place at 12.7 percent.

The IDC also notes consumers are keeping smartphones longer than ever now, with "refresh rates" or the time that passes before people buy a new phone 'climb[ing] past 40 months in most major markets.' The report closes saying: "2023 is set up to be a year of caution as vendors will rethink their portfolio of devices while channels will think twice before taking on excess inventory. However, on a positive note, consumers may find even more generous trade-in offers and promotions continuing well into 2023 as the market will think of new methods to drive upgrades and sell more devices, specifically high-end models."

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Q4 2022 Was a Disaster For Smartphone Sales, Sees the Largest-Ever Drop

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  • by Talon0ne ( 10115958 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:32PM (#63243705)

    Hey not everyone needs a gigantic phone. Some of us like like the small SE still. The original iphone 5 size one from forever ago. That's really all I want.

    • by crow ( 16139 )

      Yup. Every phone I've gotten has been bigger than the one before it. My employer provides the phones, so I'm on Samsung: S3, S5, S7, S8, S21FE. The S21 FE is huge. I recently put an S8 in my pocket, and it's wonderfully smaller. The two things better on the S21FE are the camera and the battery, both of which are significant improvements. I'm still honestly tempted to switch back, though.

    • by ranton ( 36917 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @10:41PM (#63243885)

      I'm on the other end of the spectrum, as I bought a new phone every 1-2 years just to get a bigger model. That all stopped with my current Note 10+, which is the same size as the S22 Ultra. This is the first time my phone has lasted me over three years, and I don't see myself buying the S23 Ultra either.

      But if Samsung released a 7" flagship they would have my money tomorrow. It could probably get up to about 8" before it wouldn't fit in my pocket easily anymore.

      • You've got big pockets - my 6.5" fits in my jeans pocket, so long as I don't bend my leg more than a usual walking stride. Anything else gets uncomfortable really quick (to the point I worry I'm going to break the phone).

        I'd love a 5.5" or maybe 6" phone again. They were the most practical cross between form and function for me. These days with bevel-less screens and whatnot, I reckon that'd do me just fine. Put a decent camera on it too, and I'm in.

        • You've got big pockets - my 6.5" fits in my jeans pocket

          Cargo pockets, FTW! Yeah, yeah, they're ugly. I don't care. Function over form.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Powercntrl ( 458442 )

      Hey not everyone needs a gigantic phone.

      Apple tried the whole smaller phone thing and it didn't sell well. It's a shame because I really do like my iPhone 13 mini, but if I have to get used to something a little bigger next time I upgrade, so be it.

      • Apple still are regarded as a premium phone - a cheaper version is not what people want

        But people do want cheaper and smaller phones - they are just not the people who buy an iPhone ..

        Note Outside the USA non-Apple smartphones sell very well

        • I think this iteration they've gone the right direction in that the 14 Pro and the 14 Pro Max are identical other than size. Previous iPhones, such as the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8+ were different functionally. If you wanted the better camera, faster processor, you had to get the bigger phone.

      • by antdude ( 79039 )

        Ditto. I went from 4S to 6 +, and then 12 mini. I love the smaller and lighter physical sizes. However, batteries due to physics. Argh. :(

    • Those are simply not selling. They are available, cheap, and don't sell.

      • Off course those crappy cheap ones doesn't sell. Noone in their right mind would want that crap. Many like me, want a high quality phone in a smaller form factor, 5" maximum. I would prefer it with a plastic screen too, I can take a scratch or two, but don't want the screen to crack for the smallest drop. But it needs to have a cpu and memory to actually run the latest OS. And I would by an apple phone today if I could get lineage os on it easily. But I am stuck with the google eco-system because of Apples

    • Been saying this for years.

      I don't want a ridiculously massive, thin, fragile phablet with a 7" screen like the sheeple do.

      I want a small, rubberized 4.5" screen phone, thick enough to have a large battery and that I can safely put in my back jeans pocket.
    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 )

      Hey not everyone needs a gigantic phone. Some of us like like the small SE still. The original iphone 5 size one from forever ago. That's really all I want.

      Not every phone is giant. You don't want a small phone. You want a specific large phone to be available in a smaller size. If size was all you cared about you'd pick one of the many phones on the market that already meet your needs. Shit man even Apple offers you what you want. Get an iPhone 13 mini and stop whining about to us about your ineptitude.

      • The iPhone 13 "mini" with it's 5.7" screen is a giant phone to someone like me who thinks the 5s was the perfect size and the SE with it's 4.7" screeen is an acceptable compromise.

        • Not sure if you're dishonest or just clueless about what a screen size means. The iPhone 5s did not have a full sized screen with a large portion of the phone's size vertically being dedicated to a button and top bezel, and had a significantly larger bezel around all dimensions.

          The iPhone 5s and iPhone 13 mini are within 1/4" of each other in both width and height.

    • Rocking the iPhone Mini 13...love it!
    • I'm still rocking my OG SE (though I did put in a fresh battery a couple years back)

      the "mini" looks like the next best modern thing from apple?

    • by antdude ( 79039 )

      Ditto. What's wrong with iPhone minis? They're small too. OK, their batteries aren't great, but can do MagSafe.

  • The new "Disaster" (Score:5, Insightful)

    by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:34PM (#63243713)

    So, a reduction in the amount of harm being peddled to young adults, is some kind of "disaster". How ironic.

    The real disaster we're finding, is what kind of human smartphone addiction creates.

    Not that Greed N. Corruption gives a shit.

    • by stooo ( 2202012 )

      THIS.

  • by locater16 ( 2326718 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:35PM (#63243717)
    I only upgraded from a Galaxy S8 to S10 recently, and only because the S8's radio got too old. Yes the old radio thing matters because newer ones support more people using more data; which is also the real reason for 5g and why LTE has gotten slower (too many users doing too much).

    But otherwise phones haven't advanced other than cameras, and my $1k mirrorless still well outclasses smartphone cameras so IDC about the new ones. In fact phones have gotten heavier and thicker than ever without getting new features anyone really cares about.

    When there's a durable, not hyper expensive foldable phone that isn't a downgrade from my current phone in important ways I and the rest of the world might actually get interested again, or holograms or something. But until then, when money troubles start up not getting a new bloody phone is easily among the first things dropped.
    • Youâ(TM)d be shocked how good an iPhone pro max camera is today compared to even a $2k mirror less camera if you do mostly point and shoot photography. Obviously the custom lenses on a mirror less for very specific purposes will out perform but for point and shoot the iPhone is just incredible. Source, I have a Sony Alpha 7 IV and find the iPhone photos better for point and shoot scenarios.
    • You hit the nail on the head. I used my iPhone 6s up until this year when it slipped out of my pocket and the screen broke. It was starting to get a little dysfunctional too, typing was becoming a problem with input delay, but it did everything I wanted it to.

      Moving to the iPhone 14 Pro, I can't really say there is any feature of it that makes me go, "Oh, wow, this is what I was missing!" It's certainly an upgrade, better camera, faster processor. But functionally, it does everything the iPhone 6s did but h

  • by memzer ( 2033838 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:42PM (#63243739)
    Not sure how it is in other countries but a 40 month cycle sounds about right when most plans for new phones have moved from 2 to 3 year payment plans. Most just upgrade at the end of a contract (newest flagship) or if their phone is damaged. Beyond that, the incentive to upgrade isn't as strong - newer flagships really just boast bigger screen sizes and better cameras for most of the last few generations - battery life isn't significantly improved, neither is performance for the most part; at least to the typical user browsing Youtube, Facebook or Tiktok.
    • by Ritz_Just_Ritz ( 883997 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:59PM (#63243781)

      When the devices have gotten so expensive that people are FINANCING them, perhaps it's time to engage a bit of self awareness and say that it's gotten past need and has entered the realm of self indulgence and keeping up with the Jones's.

      • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday January 27, 2023 @04:48AM (#63244219)

        When the devices have gotten so expensive that people are FINANCING them,

        Err what? People have financed mobile phones literally since the first ones have come to the market, and it has literally always been the most popular way of acquiring a mobile phone. Or did you think you actually got a "free" phone on that monthly plan?

        It's a practice that dates back to the times when phones had 7" aerials sticking out of the top of them.

        perhaps it's time to engage a bit of self awareness

        Perhaps it's time to do a basic Google search. When you do you'll find plenty of perfectly cheap phones on the market. What's your complaint here? That you demand the highest end flagship phone for nothing, or that you can't figure out how to research the device you want?

        • It's a practice that dates back to the times when phones had 7" aerials sticking out of the top of them.

          Hell, lots of phones attached to the wall with wires were financed. Though that often wasn't the customer's choice.

      • When the devices have gotten so expensive that people are FINANCING them, perhaps it's time to engage a bit of self awareness and say that it's gotten past need and has entered the realm of self indulgence and keeping up with the Jones's.

        I can drop the cash and buy my phones, or other "toys" I want....but if they give me the option to do 24-36mos interest free, why not play with their money?

        I just keep the cash I'd pay for the item in savings account and let it earn a little interest while I make the low

      • by mjwx ( 966435 )

        When the devices have gotten so expensive that people are FINANCING them, perhaps it's time to engage a bit of self awareness and say that it's gotten past need and has entered the realm of self indulgence and keeping up with the Jones's.

        That's the way it's always been though. If you wanted a high end phone you rarely paid outright for it, you got it included on your plan and handed it back at the end of the plan. This was usually 24 months. It's only in the last decade where people have been renewing their phone every 12 months and of course, the telco's have been happy to finance that as well. In 2007 a Blackberry cost around US$700, that in todays money is a bit over US$1,000, few yuppies fronted up the cash for that especially as they l

    • by Anonymous Coward
      I'd argue that it's actually counter-productive to upgrade to the latest flagship phones. While the CPUs have gotten faster and the cameras have much higher resolution, the flash storage hasn't actually increased all that much. i.e.: You'll be taking far fewer pictures and videos before you run out of space.
      • I'd argue that it's actually counter-productive to upgrade to the latest flagship phones. While the CPUs have gotten faster and the cameras have much higher resolution, the flash storage hasn't actually increased all that much. i.e.: You'll be taking far fewer pictures and videos before you run out of space.

        If the user buys a phone with a socket for an SD card, this problem goes away.

  • Force obsolescence (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Ritz_Just_Ritz ( 883997 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @08:57PM (#63243773)

    Perhaps I'm just not a power user, but I haven't had a phone that has been THAT much better than my previous one in maybe 10-12 years. In that time, they have ballooned in price, have become increasingly difficult to upgrade/repair, and you're pretty much shit out of luck after 3-4 years when the vendor decides they don't feel like supporting it any longer.

    So I'm going to hang on to the one that I've got until it just won't work any longer rather than join the race to the bottom (of our bank accounts) to get the next incremental bit of poo that offers some additional feature that I don't care about.

    Best,

    • You're more right than you may know.

      Both Samsung and OnePlus went the "cheap out" way and downgraded a few things on their flagships, but the only thing they did not downgrade - was the price tag.

    • As a low end phone user, my phones were all lacking something I would've wanted. My Moto E5 I purchased in 2019 has had everything I want except for more storage, for $80. Four years later, my $80 budget would get me... literally the exact same Moto E5 which is still selling for around the same price. So I won't be upgrading because what's available at my price point doesn't appear to have actually changed in 4 years.

      • Beyond economic repair lowers device life span in some popular models. A new battery cost increases. If need a new screen and battery fading then getting a new one looks more enticing . I like the higher IPX protection but would trade it for easier less costly battery replacement. Just get a better case.
    • by Anonymous Coward

      Phones plateaued so long ago these headlines aren't even funny anymore, they're more like a sign of manipulation and exploit. Even with shitty devs bloating up OSs and "apps" it's not like phones are saturating their spec. Even if there WAS a significant step up in spec, to what end? So you can enjoy all that demanding triple-A phone gaming? You run ONE program at a time, are you trying to mine crypto with it?

      So there's fuckall "upgraded" and you otherwise face design decay or feature loss. To what end, I k

    • by BeerCat ( 685972 )

      I recently went from an iPhone 6S (bought second hand in near mint condition) to a (new) iPhone SE (4th gen).

      While the phones are the same size, the differences in battery life and even camera image quality are worth it.

      I'll probably hang on to the SE for 3 - 4 years though, as it is good enough for my needs

    • have become increasingly difficult to upgrade/repair

      No they haven't. Phones are literally repairable by actual teenagers. Just go to any little electronics corner shop and they'll fix whatever it is you broke, in front of you, making you feel sad when you realise how easy it was.

      and you're pretty much shit out of luck after 3-4 years when the vendor decides they don't feel like supporting it any longer.

      Why? Do they have a remote kill switch? Does your phone just say "the timer has expired, goodnight forever"?

      • by flink ( 18449 )

        and you're pretty much shit out of luck after 3-4 years when the vendor decides they don't feel like supporting it any longer.

        Why? Do they have a remote kill switch? Does your phone just say "the timer has expired, goodnight forever"?

        No, you just risk having the reams of highly personal data that is on a typical phone stolen because of an unpatched security flaw. Beyond that, some apps you use might cease to function on the older OS.

    • by mjwx ( 966435 )

      Perhaps I'm just not a power user, but I haven't had a phone that has been THAT much better than my previous one in maybe 10-12 years. In that time, they have ballooned in price, have become increasingly difficult to upgrade/repair, and you're pretty much shit out of luck after 3-4 years when the vendor decides they don't feel like supporting it any longer.

      So I'm going to hang on to the one that I've got until it just won't work any longer rather than join the race to the bottom (of our bank accounts) to get the next incremental bit of poo that offers some additional feature that I don't care about.

      Best,

      I disagree, phones have gotten loads cheaper over the last decade. In 2012 you were paying about US$500 for a phone, now a good phone can be had for under $300. You don't need to get the high end phones to get the features you want. My last Nokia (X10) cost £180.

  • Where is the value? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Jayhawk0123 ( 8440955 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @09:18PM (#63243799)

    From a Canadian perspective-
    ever increasing cost of new phones
    marginal improvements
    prohibitive costs to repair
    delicate ports, and screens that frequently wear out or break
    no improvements in battery life
    terrible phone plans at exorbitant prices

    Where is the value for me for spending another $1,000 on a new phone? And 1K is on the low end these days for a decent device.

  • Pretty soon there will be a one to one ratio of full pcs to smartphone where everyone as one of each and they don't need a better device.
  • First example (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Bandraginus ( 901166 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @10:31PM (#63243879)

    Seems to me that smartphones (or mobile phones in general) are the best litmus test for how far capitalism's "unending growth" mantra can go. There's only so many people on planet, and once you've saturated the entire theoretical market (the entire world), where does the growth come from?

    But of course, some bean counter, somewhere, will declare this a disaster, and I have no doubt that several modestly profitable companies will fold simply because they're not exhibiting exponential growth.

  • by Auchmithie ( 7848440 ) on Thursday January 26, 2023 @10:42PM (#63243889)
    The market is saturated; there is no benefit other than bragging rights in upgrading; upgrading creates waste and let's be honest - those rare earths aren't ;likely to be salvaged. The green thing to do is to hang on to your phone until it dies, then recycle it carefully. And buy a repairable replacement.
    • Victims of their own success. My Galaxy Note 10+ was so good, I would still have it if the wireless charging feature had not failed. That, and an outrageously generous $800 trade-in of the 10+ for the S22 won me over, and now I have the S22. It'll probably be another 3 - 4 years before something in it fails, and I get the next iteration of large phone. Yeah, I like 'em big, they're easier to find when you drop 'em.

      • by Joosy ( 787747 )

        I'm still perfectly happy with my Samsung Note 8! (Well, except for lousy night-time photos ...)

  • Even suffering from the #GSOD [youtube.com], my Note 9 + few workarounds is more than enough. Even better, it is the 512 GB storage model : room enough for my entire FLAC collection, and more than many modern flagships.
    Should I have to replace it, it would not be by another @Samsung @SamsungMobile. Yes, I will miss the stylus. I hope this brand will miss money.

  • by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Friday January 27, 2023 @01:35AM (#63244059)

    You mean to say incrementally updating the camera and then charging extortonist level prices doesn't make people desperate to upgrade?

  • Oh noes (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Friday January 27, 2023 @04:08AM (#63244155)

    People using their phones longer is a good thing. Maybe not for these companies who only count success in terms of up front sales, but certainly in terms of e-waste. And doubtless EU regs and similar initiatives will slows sales even further. If manufacturers can't sell as many phones then their model needs to adapt - sell phones based on their ruggedness and durability and sell extended support, parts and other services that longer lasting phones might need.

    • Also better for the economy as a whole in the long run.

      The whole business model of those companies is like a glazier convincing people to break their own windows. It is not just environmentally harmful, but also a waste of resources, specially human labour, that could be better spent on things that actually improve the overall life quality of other human beings.

    • I certainly wouldn't mind paying a bit of money after say, three years of owning a phone, for software updates. I tend to keep a piece of hardware for a long time if it works and satisfies my needs. My current smartphone (launched in 2020) would fit my needs for a very long time if I can change the battery and the software was reasonably updated (even if it's just security updates)
  • Well since they so easily convinced the world that they cannot survive without a pocket computer. Just convince them they need two or three of them, should be a snap, and boom you've tripled your market size.

    Just get all employers to make paycheques out directly to cellphone makers and network providors. Food and dental care are not necessary, you will die without a third cellphone however...

  • by bloodhawk ( 813939 ) on Friday January 27, 2023 @05:51AM (#63244287)
    Given insane pricing for incremental improvements it is a bit like PC market, we have exited the era of needing the newest model each year. I upgraded my 3 year old mid range for new mid range and that was only due to not getting any more security updates. Differences are almost unnoticeable between them.
  • I have an iPhone 7Plus, my wife an iPhone 6, we got new batteries and we're good for another few years.

    • I kept my iPhone 7 Plus for 4/5 years. By the end, it was getting a bit slow, even after a couple of battery replacements. I used it a lot so I did upgrade to the 13. However, I think I should be good for at least another 2 years.

      Things will eventually plateau. The problem is that all those folks creating websites and so on do tend to make them more resource heavy over time and older devices end up struggling.

      However, if your device is used lightly, then an iPhone 7 probably still works well enough.

  • I usually replace my phone when it has fallen to the floor one too many times and something critical no longer works properly. That usually is the screen, but can be any part really.

    I wonder; during the COVID lockdowns, there was much less people movement. It believe it stands to reason that staying at home is safer for your phone than being outside.

    Would the drop in new sales have anything to do with the possible drop (pun intended) in the number of broken phones? In that case; we can expect phone sales to

  • Or at least it'll shock the clueless marketeers at the phone manufacturers who just assume we'll all eat the shit sandwiches they try and shove down our throats every year. For you guys, here's are some clues:

    1) Make them cheaper. I'm NOT going to spend $600-$1000 every year or two on a new phone. Get it?

    2) Stop removing hardware. Bluetooth is unreliable and pissy after all these years. I need a phone jack, a power jack, physical buttons to turn the phone off and regulate sound. The on-screen alternatives a

  • by RUs1729 ( 10049396 ) on Friday January 27, 2023 @09:06AM (#63244513)
    What can new phones do that older ones can't? Are the new ones so much faster, better, prettier? Are the foldable ones reasonably priced for what they add to the experience? Ordinary phones already meet the needs of most people, and there is no reason any more to get a new phone at the drop of a hat. Or is it that manufacturers (and shareholders and investors) are expecting for people to own five or more phones. This "grow or die" mindset is beyond preposterous.
    • It's forced obsolescence. Old phones don't get new updates. Some banks will not let you do transactions using phones that do not get the latest updates.

      • Some banks will not let you do transactions using phones that do not get the latest updates.

        That actually makes sense. The problem is that phones that don't get security updates for 6-12 months often end up with multiple critical, remotely-exploitable security vulnerabilities. They really shouldn't be trusted with money or sensitive data.

        Yes, this means consumers should demand longer support timelines. Of course, that will make devices more expensive. Support isn't free, and since the phonemakers typically only get paid once, on initial sale, they have to build the support cost into that up-fron

  • You people and your large phones frighten and confuse me. Here's mine: https://media.vlipsy.com/vlips... [vlipsy.com] In all seriousness, I havent felt the need to upgrade in over 2 years now.
  • I'm shocked! People didn't want to fork over $2000 for the latest and greatest instagram watching machine?

  • This comes as no surprise to me. I was perfectly happy with my old phone but when they started killing off the 4g towers and only having 5g towers my phone was quickly becoming unusable. Basically forced me to upgrade. Sure, my phone was 5 years old but it worked so why upgrade?

    Ended up buying a new phone off Amazon for less then the carriers. Then I switched carriers (bye bye t mobile) and am very happy on Visible (apparently on verizon, which I used before T mobile).

    Still, not happy I was essentially forc

  • Removing features is not a feature, not even for the average idiot.

    Removing bloatware (or making it removable) like the trash Samsung defecates onto otherwise decent devices would be another plus but Samsung don't get Western psychology.

  • To replace my current iPhone with a 512GB (I have a lot of music) iPhone 14 Pro would cost $1300 bucks. Wayyyyyyy too much money. The carriers only give any sort of a discount if you're upgrading 4 phones, a recent phone to trade in (then why upgrade?) or are switching carriers. Eff 'em all.

  • If any phone manufacturing executive didn't see this coming and prepare for it, they should be sacked.

    The pandemic made this inevitable:
    • Everyone snapped up new gear for working from home and other reasons. Those who would have normally waited a year or two more before upgrading did so early. Those who may never have had a smart phone or who had an ancient one decided they had to get one. etc. Very few people NEED a new phone right now.
    • In response to increased demand, hardware companies across-the-board

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