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There Are About 5.3 Billion People on Earth Aged Over 15. Of These, Around 5 Billion Have a Mobile Phone. (ben-evans.com) 65

Benedict Evans: There are about 5.3bn people on earth aged over 15. Of these, around 5bn have a mobile phone. This is an estimate: I'm going with the GSMA's but most others are in the same range. The data challenge is that mobile operators collectively know how many people have a SIM card, but a lot of people have more than one. Meanwhile, ownership starts at aged 10 or so in developed markets, whereas in some developing markets half of the population is under 15, which means that a penetration number given as a share of the total population masks a much higher penetration of the adult population.

[...] How many of these are online? These sources are all based on devices that connect to the internet regularly in order for them to be counted, but 'connection' is a pretty fuzzy thing. The entry price for low-end Android is now well under $50, and cellular data connectivity is relatively expensive for people earning less than $10 or $5 a day (and yes, all of these people are getting phones). Charging your phone is also expensive -- if you live without grid electricity, you may need to pay the neighbor who owns a generator, solar cells or car battery to top up your battery. Hence, MTN Nigeria recently reported that 47% of its users had a smartphone but only 27% were active data users (defined as using >5 meg/month). Of course, some of these will be limiting their use to wifi, where they can get it. These issues will obviously intensify as the next billion convert to smartphones (or near-smartphones like KaiOS) in the next few years. There are lots of paths to address this, including the continuing cost efficiencies of cellular, cheaper backhaul (perhaps using LEO satellites), and cheap solar panels (and indeed more wifi). The fratricidal price wars started by Jio in India are another contributor, though you can't really rely on that to happen globally. But this issue means that on one hand there are actually more than 4bn smartphones in use in some way, but on the other that fewer than 4bn are really online.

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There Are About 5.3 Billion People on Earth Aged Over 15. Of These, Around 5 Billion Have a Mobile Phone.

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  • Penetrate (Score:1, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    He said penetrate and kids under 15 in the same sentence.
  • by pgmrdlm ( 1642279 ) on Thursday May 30, 2019 @01:53PM (#58681224) Journal
    I just read an article on time.com about e-waste, and how much of it is being generated world wide. It's good that more people have mobile phones, this brings information and communication. But we really do have to address globally the e-waste that is then generated.

    http://time.com/5594380/world-electronic-waste-problem/ [time.com]
    • The Google modular phone idea was a neat concept that could have solved this problem at least partially, too bad it never went anywhere.

      All smartphone companies would have to sit and hammer out standards for this idea to really take off, and I doubt you'll get Apple and Google to agree on anything.

    • Ship them to the United States for Rare Earth Mining. Far richer Ore than comes out of the ground.

    • I suspect that the rate of e-waste would be significantly lower if we'd just keep our electronic devices as long as they filled the current need, until they couldn't be fixed anymore. (And, parenthetically, that we're *allowed* to fix them.) But the market is very carefully designed for complete replacement every 18 months or so. As long as we as consumers buy into that, we as individuals are going to have a large footprint in electronic waste.

    • But we really do have to address globally the e-waste that is then generated.

      Well 30% of the world is land, while 70% is sea. Hardware sinks. Plus, "out of sight is out of mind." I think you know the DRIFT that I'm implying here.

      Why, if things were made to last, who would buy new ones? I mean, I literally have a 100+ year old milk churn, butter presses, and spinning wheel that all still work. (Not that I know how to use them, though.) OTOH I'm about to throw away (donate) my 150x VCR tapes and recorder/player that all work just find AND I can still use. (Encoding some of the

      • our culture in the US is so preposterous

        FTFY

        Hopefully, Europe will introduce a law requiring manufacturers to release all documentation on products that are no longer supported. (Requiring this to be in escrow before the products are released) as a way of protecting the environment.

  • "Of These, Around 5 Billion Have a Mobile Phone."

    How wonderfully productive and safe we must think we are!
  • There are ecological and energy implications of having so many cell phones on the planet but those phones but the effects are not all negative. For example, the reduced need for transportation when the action required or information needed can be obtained via the phone instead. Or the facilitation of more energy-efficient methods of transportation, such as ride sharing and ride hailing.
    • by mspring ( 126862 )
      At least, when there used to be a need for transportation / travel, people had to *think* whether the trip was worth it.
  • "Son of a bitch."
    -Literally everybody.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 30, 2019 @02:49PM (#58681564)

    and only 5.3 are older than 15 years. "In some developing markets half of the population is under 15." If these numbers don't give you nightmares, then congratulations: Ignorance is bliss.

    • and only 5.3 are older than 15 years. "In some developing markets half of the population is under 15." If these numbers don't give you nightmares, then congratulations: Ignorance is bliss.

      Before you lose sleep, you should understand the full story. https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

  • Where we all get a FREE smart phone from the government and they manage the service. It can't be worse than what we have now.

    • Where we all get a FREE smart phone from the government and they manage the service. It can't be worse than what we have now.

      Um, yeah, it really can.

  • Who are these 300M holdouts?

    • I'm one of the Luddites. I don't need nor particularly want one. I have a tablet that gets about 40 minutes of use per week. Other than that I have a landline for when I want to ignore calls and a computer for all my entertainment needs. I have had a cell phone at various times of my life and while they were periodically useful it's just not worth the cost in my opinion.

    • by Misagon ( 1135 )

      I'm one. At first I held out, waiting for when I could get one that I could hack, program and have control of, like a desktop computer. That never happened.

      Then I developed a dislike for the culture in tech where people are always expected to be reachable and on-call.

      I do not appreciate being marketed to (the national do-no-call registry didn't apply to cell phones at first), tracked and spied on.

      I noticed a behavioural shift in cell phone users: reminding me of drug addicts. The phone comes first, is alway

    • I'm one partly because the cost of a mobile plan here in Canada is insane compared to Europe or the US and I find that I only ever wish I had one about once or twice a year. However, I suspect there are more than 300M of us since I know some people have two mobiles: one for work and one for home.
    • by Cederic ( 9623 )

      I met a bunch of them in Papua New Guinea.

      They don't want phones. They want books to educate their children, they want to establish trade so that they can reduce their poverty. These are people that, when given an apple, share it with the whole family so that everybody can enjoy the luxury.

      The irony is that a mobile phone service would help them massively. But then, so would electricity.

  • Thousands are still using cups and string, a much under-served market for plastic cup manufacturers.
  • by Anonymous Coward

    When stating production numbers they don't add up to nearly 5 billion. Even including China's own estimate. I think a number of people get temp sim cards while traveling or where income is inconsistent. These PR outlets happily spew an inflated number of subscribers. But there is the core problem that 5 billion phones are not active in the world.

    Bogus bunch of meaningless self promotion from some basement dwelling mouthbreather who thinks buying an add (what this is ) on Slashdot will make him a career.

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