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Businesses Apple Technology

2018 Was the 'Worst Year Ever' For Smartphone Shipments (cnbc.com) 218

2018 was the worst year ever for smartphone shipments, according to the latest figures from research firm IDC. It means Apple isn't the only company fighting to keep people interested in buying new phones every year. From a report: IDC said 1.4 billion smartphones were sold in 2018, marking a 4.1 percent decline for the year in an industry that's accustomed to rapid growth. In 2014, as well, 1.4 billion phones were shipped, which means the industry seems to have regressed about 5 years. Shipments shrank 4.9 percent for the fourth quarter of 2018, IDC said. Apple said earlier this week that iPhone revenues were 15 percent lower than last year. CEO Tim Cook said the strengthened dollar, an economic slowdown in China, lower subsidies on phones and its battery replacement program contributed to the drop in sales. Samsung phone shipments declined 5.5 percent and Apple's slipped 11.5 percent during the quarter, IDC said. But Huawei, which was able to capitalize on China, saw a 33.6 percent bump in shipments. Chinese vendors Oppo and Xiaomi also increased shipments, IDC said.
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2018 Was the 'Worst Year Ever' For Smartphone Shipments

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:03AM (#58066894)

    I don't want to buy a new phone because they're not worth the cost. They keep breaking and their batteries die. Why would I keep spending money on these hyped up pieces of garbage that surveill me?

    • by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 04, 2019 @07:12AM (#58067166)
      I don't want to buy a new phone because they're not worth the cost. My two-year old, second hand phone works fine for my use case and is still receiving updates. YMMV
      • by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 04, 2019 @07:57AM (#58067248)

        Exactly. The old phone is still working, and the new ones aren't much better. A few more megapixels or an extra camera does not justify a new phone.

        And they are all like. They just cannot innovate. Same form factor, nearly same hw. Nobody has anything extra the others doesn't have. E-paper anyone? DAB-radio? Slide-out keyboard? Nope, they are all the same - and the same as the last 4 years.

        Perhaps those folding screens will be interesting, replacing phone & tablet with a single device. Unless they break easily. But they are not around yet, so . . .

        • by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:03AM (#58067266)

          They are actually getting worse! Notches? No headphone jack? No SD card? Glued batteries?
          They can shove those 'flagship' pieces of junk back where they pulled them out from!

          • Donâ(TM)t forget the âoeThey are so thin I keep cutting my handsâ argument.

          • Comment removed based on user account deletion
            • $200 is still ridiculously expensive for a phone. My J3 Luna I bought about 2 years ago was $50 or $60, and does everything I need it to do as far as smartphones go.

        • I don't buy a new house every year, or a new car every year, or a new TV every year, or a new refrigerator every year. Why the fuck should I buy a new phone every year when what I have is working fine and will continue to do so for years to come?

      • by ctilsie242 ( 4841247 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @10:15AM (#58067780)

        I have a two year old phone as well. Even more ironic, it has a nice feature that the newer iPhones don't... the fingerprint scanner.

        Why spend all that cash for a relatively throwaway item? All buying a new phone does is make the phone makers richer. In previous years where there were actual improvements with devices, like higher IPS displays, fingerprint scanners, faster Wi-Fi and cellular speeds, it made sense to go with a newer phone. However, it will be years before "5G" gets rolled out, and there isn't much the latest iPhone 10xspro-platinum can do that an earlier iPhone can't, other than bouncy poop icons, and a little bit better camera footage.

        Phone makers have failed to understand something: The economy is tightening. People are starting to make sure their job is secure, that they can cover next month's rent, and meet basic needs, should they get laid off. The last thing people are caring about is a new phone, especially when companies are starting to do mass layoffs.

        Want to make a phone that sells? Make a decent midrange phone. Focus on VWs, not Maybachs. People will buy phones, but they are not going to throw $1500 at a new device in this economy. Perhaps make phones with user replacable batteries and other accessories, because people will buy new batteries, but not phones, especially if the economy gets worse.

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          As someone that recently ended up with an iPhone XR (I was intending to stay with my 7 for a couple more years, but circumstances gave me this new phone) I have to say that FaceID is an under-appreciated feature.

          Some people have trouble with it, and that's a bummer, but I've never had any issue. It works at surprising angles and it's more convenient for me as a person that finds that he has gloves on or dirty/wet hands a surprising amount of the time. My phone never feels locked to me anymore. When I go bac

    • Out of all the phones I have owned for the past 20 years.
      Only one of them was due to a battery.

      First one: (Candy bar phone) I broke the screen while accidentally hitting an edge on a pillar.
      Second one: Flip Phone this one had an insane charging connector (it has 64 connection (all tiny)), which got corroded (on the phone side) so it wouldn't charge, unless I scrape and clean up with rubbing alcohol, until it was warn out.
      Third phone: (Flip Phone) Ended up in the wash.
      Forth Phone: (popup phone) Worked fine,

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Don't forget the user hostile options. In the past, updates were file based, so if you had a modded /system, it will still be OK. Now, it is by image, so any changes to a read-only filesystem mean no vendor fixes. Now, even rooting is difficult and has to be done via add-on methods like Magisk if it can be done at all, especially with top tier phone makers like Huawei doing their best to secure bootloaders and lock people out of their devices.

        On the Apple side, with Cydia all but gone, jailbreaking is al

  • by ElRabbit ( 2624627 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:04AM (#58066898)
    ... so worst ever is probably exaggerated here
    • by arglebargle_xiv ( 2212710 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @06:14AM (#58067050)

      Does that mean desktop PCs are coming back?

      A few years ago it was trendy to depict the death of the PC, which never happened, it was just a mature market and there was no need to upgrade any more. Now it's cellphones' turn.

      • The death of the PC did happen. Unless you can point to proof of some magic significat resurgence in sales that I somehow missed? A lot of regular people do not replace them once their existing PC dies because a smartphone serves their computing needs just fine.

        • by arglebargle_xiv ( 2212710 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @06:29AM (#58067080)
          Why would there be a resurgence in sales? What most people have now is good enough, there's no need to upgrade any more. That doesn't mean it's dying, merely that the upgrade cycle has been broken.
          • What most people have now is good enough, there's no need to upgrade any more.

            Just so. Unless a new piece of must-have software comes along that requires a much more powerful box, the desktop is now where the automobile has been for a long time - does what needs to be done, lasts nearly forever (yes, I remember when a car was pretty much worn out after 50K miles, instead of still going strong at 150K+ miles)....

          • by dnaumov ( 453672 )

            This is precisely what "dying" means when it comes to sales. It doesn't require that people literally throw out their existing rigs to the trash.

        • They started rising slightly in 2017 [zdnet.com], and all indications are that slight increase continued in 2018. So yes, they are slowly coming back - far from dead.
      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward

        No, but they never went away. Tech businesses have no concept of what a mature market looks like. I bet Coke doesn't see massive sales growth year over year. At best they see growth in line with population growth. It took microcomputers around 30 years to hit that mark. It only took smartphones 10. The market isn't dead. It's just that we have hit a point where the market has reached sustainable saturation while at the same time the products have developed to be good enough. Early on each new model was obje

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @06:55AM (#58067128) Homepage Journal

      To be fair the year-on-year decrease in sales from 1753 was 0%, which is lower than 4.1%.

      1999 was the best year, when smartphone sales increased from 0% to NaN%.

  • by quenda ( 644621 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:07AM (#58066904)

    Never mind sales numbers, all Apple has to do is keep increasing the price of new models in proportion to falling sales numbers.
    Revenue stays the same, and costs even go down! Shareholders happy. How can the plan fail?

    • soon a new iphone will be $5000.oo
    • by mentil ( 1748130 )

      That strategy's working out SO well for cable monopolies in response to cord-cutting, right?

      Shareholders care more about profit than revenue, anyhow (unless they anticipate the latter can be easily converted to the former via e.g. layoffs).

    • Never mind sales numbers, all Apple has to do is keep increasing the price of new models in proportion to falling sales numbers. Revenue stays the same, and costs even go down! Shareholders happy. How can the plan fail?

      Seems legit

  • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

    by kurkosdr ( 2378710 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:14AM (#58066924)
    This is how Android's problematic security updates will become a real problem. People will now keep old unpatched Android devices for longer, so all it will take is one golden exploit (think of Stagefright but self-propagating like MS Blaster of old) to bring down the Android ecosystem. Because most devices in the ecosystem are unpatchable.
    • This is how Android's problematic security updates will become a real problem. People will now keep old unpatched Android devices for longer, so all it will take is one golden exploit (think of Stagefright but self-propagating like MS Blaster of old) to bring down the Android ecosystem. Because most devices in the ecosystem are unpatchable.

      Perfect reason for them all to go buy new ones when some mysterious virus out of nowhere (definitely not made by google) sweeps through and bricks everything more than x software versions ago.

  • Why is this bad (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:15AM (#58066928)

    Smartphone tech has matured, so we dont need to upgrade every year or two year. This is a good thing. Why is every shit news site pumping out story after story on this. Is it a really a bad thing when we can consume less and save more?

    • It is good for the customer when products are become more durable. However, capitalism requires growth (at least in its current incarnation). Shrinking markets are not compatible with this necessity. Therefore, economists get nervous when more and more markets start to shrink.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward

        Capitalism does not require growth. Bullshit expectations of increased profit revenue requires growth.

        Look, I get by on X Euro every year. If I don't increase my profits every year...my god, think of the consequences to the capitalism!

        I don't know why everyone is brainwashed into thinking capitalism = unstopped growth and socialism = stalin.... a little of both with expectations of peace and happiness instead of growth and war would make a big difference towards unchecked carbon release.

        Of course that's wha

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @09:49AM (#58067662)

          Capitalism not only requires growth, it requires exponential growth.

          Investors, i.e. capitalists, expect a return on their investment, and they expect that return to be some percentage of that investment. A percentage return on investment implies exponential growth. Would you invest in something where you expected to get your principle back and nothing else?

          You can maybe imagine some form of "capitalism" where a group of leaders, chosen by some other means than how much money they have, decide how to allocate resources.

        • Capitalism does not require growth. Bullshit expectations of increased profit revenue requires growth.

          This is very true. Unfortunately, stock-based corporations that reward executives based on short-term stock price appreciation require growth at all costs. The real problem is that growth is defined in terms of short-term metrics that do not value long-term company strength, employee well-being, or societal welfare. Capitalism does not mandate this. For example, small-business owners are often driven by different motivations.

      • by c6gunner ( 950153 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:31AM (#58067330) Homepage

        However, capitalism requires growth

        People keep saying this as if it were self evident, but it's just nonsense. Capitalism tends to create and encourage growth, but there's nothing about it which requires growth.

        • by Kokuyo ( 549451 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:36AM (#58067348) Journal

          Shareholders require growth. That's about it. Now how intrinsically linked are stock exchanges and capitalism?

          • Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • Shareholders require profits, not growth. Growth is desirable because it's usually coupled with bigger profits, but is not necessary. In the absence of growth, profits can come from increased economic efficiency alone.

            e.g. I own a dairy farm, you own a chicken farm. I have a refrigerator full of milk and would like something to eat. You have a refrigerator full of eggs and would like something to drink. The efficiency of our economics is improved if I trade some of my milk for some of your eggs. Th
    • by mentil ( 1748130 )

      A contraction is many of the world's largest conglomerates could precede layoffs, or other measures that accelerate a recession. Probably $trillions of GDP, worldwide, come from smartphone-related employment/goods/services and those of their associated contractors. The US telecom monopolies could thus be seen as a world security risk, if they form an implementation/protocol monoculture that is easy to attack.

  • No killer features. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by johnsie ( 1158363 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:36AM (#58066966)
    Most people use their phones for messaging, calling people and scrolling through websites or looking up information. That can be done well on even the cheapest modern phones. I think a lot of people are addicted to their phones, but there's not this need to have the latest and greatest anymore as long as the apps run ok.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @06:52AM (#58067124) Homepage Journal

      Until recently there was a big difference between cheaper phone's cameras and the high end ones. Now that gap has narrowed considerably, especially due to some really good mid range Chinese devices pushing up expectations.

      The industry is hoping that foldable displays are the next big thing, but so far no-one has demonstrated one that looked much good. They all tend to be a bit thick and a bit naff looking around the hinge.

      The only other thing at the moment is getting rid of the notch. Many phones are going to pin holes now, which are better but still not perfect. Some are going to sliders which seem to work surprisingly well.

      Google gave up on 3D scanning, seems like Apple may have a crack at it but it's not clear what the market is.

    • "Most people use their phones for messaging, calling people and scrolling through websites or looking up information. That can be done well on even the cheapest modern phones."

      Disagree. It takes at LEAST 2GB RAM to have a halfway decent web experience, and more is better. All this JavaScript used as a crutch by incompetent web developers who refuse to understand CSS has really ruined low-memory devices. Cheap phones still often come with 1GB, and most mid range phones still have 2, while high end phones hav

      • Cheap phones still often come with 1GB, and most mid range phones still have 2, while high end phones have 3 or 4.

        Your information is seriously out of date. My phone is a 2016 Honor 6X, and it came with 3GB of memory. It never felt like the phone was running out of memory. My Firefox with 15 open tabs usually stayed in memory and did not reload the tabs all the time. Its price was about 200 bucks. I consider that to be pretty cheap (no need to cheapen down to 60 bucks for device you use every day). The 2
  • by renegade600 ( 204461 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @05:53AM (#58067006)

    actually it was the worse year for smartphone prices. if the prices were reasonable, they would have been no problems with shipments.

  • The crap they shipped was the worst ever.

  • by sad_ ( 7868 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @07:19AM (#58067182) Homepage

    much like with desktop/laptops there isn't much need to upgrade even a mid-level smartphone these days.
    which features does it have to warant me to spend a lot of money for such a device?
    cpu power is adequate and even storage is not really an issue most of the time anymore.
    a better camera? the current offerings are probably more then good enough for most people.

  • 1.4 *billion*?? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by cascadingstylesheet ( 140919 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:06AM (#58067276) Journal

    1.4 billion?? Think about that as a percentage of the world's population. Holy carp.

    And that's vs. the whole world population. What fraction of that group is actually the market for what is essentially as luxury consumer product?

    This has to be one of the most amazingly successful luxury items of all time.

    What should astonish is that it was ever more successful.

    • I really don't think of my phone as a luxury item though. Maybe ten years ago when it was impractical to afford one outright and no one would have any pre-conceived notion that you probably have one. It was only ten years before that when owning a cellular phone of any kind was not a given. In a world where even McDonald's requires you to fill out the application online, devices like smartphones are more utility than luxury maybe not globally but at least in the US
  • by coofercat ( 719737 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:32AM (#58067332) Homepage Journal

    I just bought a Doogee phone for about £45. It's to replace my old Galaxy S5 mini which we were using as a "sonos remote control" in the kitchen. Sonos are upgrading their app and whatever version of android the S5 runs is too old for it. So my upgrade prompt was bloody Sonos :-(

    Anyway, the doogee runs Android 8.1, has a big bright screen, comes with a case and a screen protector and (so far) looks like a great replacement for the remote control. At this sort of price, it makes me slightly regret spending £10 buying a new battery for the samsung a few months back. My only slight gripe is that there's no 'desk dock' for it as the power socket is at the top.

    For those looking for an actual phone, it's got dual sim, removable battery, headphone jack and most of the features you would want, but it is quite heavy. However, when we need another 'remote control' somewhere else in the house, I'll be buying another. Now the S5 is freed up, I'm on the prowl for a different OS to stick on it...

    • Which model? Is the SD slot shared with Sim 2? Water resistant?

      You could reasonably set it to rotate upside down if you wanted to put it into a dock...

  • it is ``planning on ales growth" which is unsustainable. Nothing can grow exponentially in the long term. Once the market is saturated there will be overall sales decay, inevitably, until a new big revolution comes in. We have been spoiled with progress and innovation for the last two decades. So, the improvements feel less impressive. Consolidation has something good: we don't need to buy new phones every year, the devices have become pretty reliable. I'm also still amazed and pleased how good the cameras
  • If my galaxy s5 had not gone blank screen on me, I would not have bought a Moto Z. Sure the Moto Z has a bit better screen but is missing key features like a replaceable batter but is a downgrade to me (it was also the cheapest smartphone I could find by enough to compensate for a couple of battery replacements). So there just isn't anything in a new phone I've found that is a benefit over the old galaxy s5, much less the Moto Z (unless a good new phone comes out with replaceable battery when the Moto Z b

    • Doesn't the Moto Z support mods? I have a 2 year old Moto Z Play that supports mods. The battery is going so I paid $50 for a new Moto battery mod. I charge it every night and attach it to the phone every morning. That provides me with a day's worth of juice. When this battery pack dies, I can buy another $50 battery pack. Eventually, I'll buy a new phone, but the battery pack mods are helping me delay this purchase.

      • Doesn't the Moto Z support mods? I have a 2 year old Moto Z Play that supports mods. The battery is going so I paid $50 for a new Moto battery mod. I charge it every night and attach it to the phone every morning. That provides me with a day's worth of juice. When this battery pack dies, I can buy another $50 battery pack. Eventually, I'll buy a new phone, but the battery pack mods are helping me delay this purchase.

        Hmm, it does support mods, I had not realized that included battery packs, rather than just external speakers and other useless (to me) stuff. Will need to look at when the battery winds down. Thanks for the info!

        • If you get a battery mod, look for one that can be charged via USB-C without being connected to the phone. This way, you can be charging the battery mod even if you are using the phone away from the charger.

  • by iampiti ( 1059688 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @08:46AM (#58067394)
    Tim Cook said it himself: Allowing customers to replace the batteries was part of the problem. The obvious solution is for Apple to refuse to replace them while making new phones even harder to open./s
    Seriously, this crap of making electronics purposefully hard to repair is a cancer. They should be built to be easily repairable and to last. Warranties somewhat take care of the latter but there's no law to promote the former. It's not only a matter of money but also of e-waste
    • I thought of e-waste too. The number of places willing to accept the stuff is falling and the valuable stuff like precious metals costs too much to recover. Also, see our plastic oceans.
  • by tsa ( 15680 )

    I remember 1977. No smartphone shipments whatsoever. None.

  • Of those 1.4 billion smartphones sold in 2014, how many are still in use (being kept in a drawer as a backup counts as 'use') by the original owner, how many are being used by a second or third owner, and how many are in the landfill? I suspect a large majority are in a landfill. Huge amounts of advanced computing power, precious metals, lithium batteries etc etc all disposed of as 'waste' every year, I'm certainly no environmental nut (I will cling onto my internal combustion engine till I die) but I fin

  • Let me guess. You are designing a brand new candy-bar cellphone--right?

    For years, I've wanted a new cellphone with a physical keyboard. I hate Apple's closedness, and Android's UI sloppiness. I like being able to plug a USB drive into my phone. Curved screens are impractical. Replaceable MicroSDs and removable batteries rock my cellphone word. We don't need 5 crappy cameras--only one good one. Battery life rules the business world.

  • by guacamole ( 24270 ) on Monday February 04, 2019 @11:03AM (#58068022)
    Remember how the PC market started stalling at about the time of introduction of Windows Vista a decade ago, and then went into a full decline by 2012? People who don't play 3D games started to keep their PCs for 6-7 years because PC with Core 2 Duo was enough for checking mail, social networks, or browsing the web. The smartphones have reached the same plateau.

    I recall how horrible were the early iPhones. They reminded me the PCs of the 1990s. Despite all the innovations, there was no denying that say iPhone 3G or iPhone 4S were ridiculously and painfully slow for things like web browsing. Watching video or reading the ebook on 3-inch something display was terrible. But the technology has moved on, and I myself use a 2016 Honor 6X phone which cost me 200 bucks (when it was new). It's has a big bright screen, good camera, the security patch level from Dec 2018, battery to last at least a day and runs all apps that I actually use flawlessly. Sometimes I entertain the idea of getting a 2019 phone, but at the same time I just wonder, don't fix what's not broken.
  • That the last few versions of phones have been nothing more than soaking consumers. Slim, sexy, colorful & stylish just ain't cutting it anymore, given what they are charging. When you can buy a GOOD phone for 500 bucks, why would you spend 1000-1300 dollars on one just to get an apple/samsung logo?

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