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Analyst Predicts Android Overtaking iPhone In 2012 385

Market watcher Gartner is claiming that by Q4 2012 Google's Android smartphone OS will have overtaken Apple's iPhone. Currently only the sixth most popular phone OS, Android is set to rocket into second place behind Symbian if the predictions are to be believed. The reason for the changing of the guard is that "many handset makers are betting their futures on Android, while Apple is just one company." 2012 rankings place Symbian at the top followed by Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, and Blackberry."
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Analyst Predicts Android Overtaking iPhone In 2012

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  • by sopssa ( 1498795 ) * <sopssa@email.com> on Friday October 09, 2009 @02:39PM (#29696627) Journal

    I wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian if other users want to run them.

    Windows Mobile I still except to stick around, it's quite nice system and you can run any apps on it (I have HTC so I only have experience with their modifications to it, but still)

    However it doesn't really come as a surprise that Android is going to climb it's place up, and great that it is. Even if iPhone is a nice phone OS, it's way too locked down, only runs on Apple's closed phones and apps store.

  • by pieterh ( 196118 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @02:51PM (#29696785) Homepage

    If you've ever tried a KIRF $50 Chinese smartphone you'll see that all that has been missing is Android. The Shanzai ability to innovate in hardware is so powerful that I predict this is the future model for building phones, computers, and such.

    All that's been missing is a decent free OS.

    While the Shanzai firms take over most of the world's production of smartphones, and sell their designs and models to Nokia, Samsung, Apple, and Microsoft, they will also be taking over PMPs, netbooks, and god knows what else.

    And finally we'll all be using $20 smartphones and $75 computers. I cannot wait.

  • by UnknowingFool ( 672806 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @02:55PM (#29696847)

    Windows Mobile's share will grow from 10.3 per cent to 12.8 per cent during the same quarters, Gartner added, which will see it remain as the fourth most popular phone-based OS.

    So Gartner is saying WinMo will grow. Based on what? Their last release 6.5 is being panned by many reviewers as window-dressing of 6.1 with few new features. The only thing that WinMo users can hope is that WinMo 7 will catch up to iPhone, Android, Palm OS, etc. But at the earliest this is a year away and no one has seen it yet. By that time, WinMo competitors are not likely to be sitting idle and will be continually updating their software.

  • by mpapet ( 761907 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @03:14PM (#29697139) Homepage

    wish Symbian would die already, its a horrible system and all apps require certification from Symbian

    Oh really? THen how would the MAME port for Symbian ever work on my phone? How about any one of a number of openSSH clients for Symbian?

    Windows Mobile I still except to stick around, it's quite nice system and you can run any apps
    WTF? I know a few people that have regretted buying Microsoft's offering inside a phone. I know I'm not alone.

    Seriously, you guys don't know what you have been missing with Symbian devices. Tons of applications, stable OS, excellent media Freedom.

    Now that the OS is supposed to be GPL'd at some point, it might help it's case against more rudimentary products from Apple and Google.

  • by dbcad7 ( 771464 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @03:24PM (#29697281)
    Because it's not, really. It's a rant on how someone loves their phone, and that no one could possibly make a better one. It's not insightful to ignore what is going on in the market. It's not insightful to ignore what's going on in the world outside your own. It's a comment from someone who most likely has never even used an Android phone.. most "iPhone will never be beat" comments are written by such people.. It ignores the fact that within a month, in the US there will be 7 Android competitors across various carriers, and that by this time next year it will be at least double that.. Maybe the iPhone is just that great, that it can outsell all these models across all these carriers.. or maybe the projections are understated, and it won't even take that long.
  • Re:Gartner (Score:2, Interesting)

    by NoYob ( 1630681 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @03:25PM (#29697291)
    Actually 30 years ago, Gartner, as in the Gartner got a reputation as having extremely accurate predictions and knowledge of the IT industry - this was in the 70s and the 80s. Of course, there wasn't as much going on in the 70s as there is now. He built up a reputation and a business.

    Now, he has a bunch of associates working there doing the actual predictions and analysis. For what that's worth.

    Gartner himself, I believe, is on a tropical private island and surround by beautiful naked women.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 09, 2009 @04:13PM (#29697885)

    How can you explain the increase in sales of iPhone since the days of 2007? The recession only slowed down the already strong momentum of the iPhone. It would have sold more if there were no recessions.

    Your suggestion that the Android put pressure on Apple to create the SDK is a fallacy. The chief reason why there's an SDK for iPhone is to extend the iPhone platform in the form of the AppStore. It's hardly Android's SDK is the catalyst. Windows Mobile and Symbian has been present with their own dev environment long before Android. The dev platform on a mobile device is not a model Apple used directly from Android. You might even say that Android imitated the Windows Mobile in terms of offering an OS for a smartphone.

    Any sort of pressure Android put on Apple means that it would be penetrating the mobile market in a way that competed against iPhone for some time. Android's theoretical wide adoption is just starting now.

  • by Aqualung812 ( 959532 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @04:20PM (#29697985)

    I'm an iPhone 3G S user, and I AM thankful for the Android.

    However, this analyst doesn't see what you pointed out, reaction to pressure.

    If Android starts offering things software-wise that Apple does not, Apple can (not sure they will) change their App Store policies pretty quick. Starting with getting out of the exclusive AT&T arrangement, I'm sure we'll see some changes between now and 2011

    Thankfully, I'll be done with my 2 years in 2011. If Android has the same share of apps that iPhone has, I'll get to make a hardware and moral (F/OSS) choice. However, if developers don't embrace the Android, I'll be getting a iPhone 4GXXX

  • by _Sprocket_ ( 42527 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @04:36PM (#29698201)

    Focused competition will beat apple (remember Palm vs Newton?), but unfocused, dispersed competition is going to have a hard time beating Apple at their own game.

    Each sector of a market has it's own influences. So it's a little tricky (if not downright self deceptive) to draw conclusions from one and apply it to another. That being said...

    The PDA sector was different. The Newton was cutting edge - but it was part of an emerging market. Things really didn't take off until Palm introduced the right form factor. So while it isn't fair to say Palm invented the PDA, they really set the market. But then, that market has ceased to exist along with Palm's domination.

    Another example with some parallels is the microcomputer market. Apple defined that market. They weren't the first microcomputer. But they were, at the least, among the first to treat it as a consumer device. They were the first platform for the killer microcomputer business app - the spreadsheet. A market exploded around them. And while they were challenged by IBM's entry in to that market (after IBM realized what was going on in a sector they ignored), it wasn't until IBM lost control of their platform and the "PC" became commodity did Apple get truly buried. This despite the (arguably) superior product of the Mac.

    Again - this doesn't mean that what happened in the PDA market or the Personal Computer market is guaranteed to be repeated with mobile computing. But it does provide enough parallels to keep in consideration when trying to make an educated guess at the future.

  • by Fallen Seraph ( 808728 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @05:13PM (#29698665)

    The lack of multitasking in the iPhone is an asset, not a shortcoming.

    No, I assure you, it's a shortcoming. Palm's WebOS did multi-tasking the right way (hell, even the iPhone's browser manages tabs in that way). And when I get a call on my Pre, I've never had an issue with "having too many apps open to take a phone call" as you imply. And when I recieve a phone call, it takes up half my screen to inform me of it. You say you rolled Pre's out to your user base recently and they didn't like them, but you fail to tell us who your user base is, and as such, give us no way of knowing if the iPhone, a Blackberry, or anything else for that matter would've fared much better.

    I'll say this, after owning a Pre for about 2 months now, and having nearly all of my friends own iPhones, both definitely have their benefits and issues. There are things the Pre has which my friends wish their iPhones had (updates over the air, no need to use iTunes to sync, proper multi-tasking, etc). And conversely, there are things the iPhone has which I wish the Pre had (a more developed app store, better graphics acceleration, better functionality in landscape mode, etc).

    I can't honestly say that one is necessarily better than the other, and they can't either from the many conversations we've had on the issue. the big questions is what happens from here, though. Palm's already moving onto their second WebOS powered handset, while Apple's still plotting their next move. I know many of my friends are planning to switch to Android once their contracts are up unless Apple actually does something of substance with the iPhone again. But the bigger point is that thus far they have ONLY the iPhone and nothing more. There're no options. I, for example, didn't want one because it lacked a physical keyboard, and I didn't want to use AT&T. Android, by contrast, is taking the buckshot approach wherein they're basically tossing a multitude of different handsets by different manufacturers onto different carriers, many of which look vastly different in their GUIs, but all of which will share the same core app store and capabilities.

    The iPhone recently tried a new marketing campaign wherein they claimed "There's an app for that." By the looks of it, Android is essentially running with "There's a phone for that."

  • by LWATCDR ( 28044 ) on Friday October 09, 2009 @06:15PM (#29699357) Homepage Journal

    My wife has a pre and I have an iPod Touch aka an iPhone without the phone.
    She loves the multi tasking. She can and does keep several applications open and once and flips between them.
    It is a pain to exit one app on the touch to go to another app. I would say that you don't know until you have a phone that multitasks well.
    It is funny but the lack of multi tasking comments sounds way too much like the people back in the DOS days saying that multi tasking was usless because they had TSRs.
    Your feelings on the HTC phones are your. Engadget, Cnet, and a lot of other people do not agree with you.
    As to the ZuneHD vs the iPhone. The Tegra cpu gpu can actually support 1080p video and is very powerful and power efficent combination. It will be in many smartbooks soon. I don't care that it isn't selling well. Many things about the software stack are really not great when you compare it to the iPod Touch but the actual hardware is very good. The statment was other companies have to step up to Apples quality of hardware. The iPhone's actual hardware is nothing all that special.
    Right now the iPhone's best features are.
    1. The developer community.
    2. User interface.
    And I think the Pre has as good of a user interface. And since I have an iPod Touch and use my wife's Pre I have seen them side by side.

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