Gartner Predicts Android Most Popular Mobile OS By 2014 180
mikesd81 writes "According to Gartner research firm, Google's Android smartphone operating system will in a single year have leapfrogged competitors like Apple's iPhone, Research in Motion's Blackberry and Microsoft Windows phones in global popularity, and will challenge Nokia to become the world's most popular mobile OS by 2014. Gartner says that the explosive growth of Android will give it 17.7% of world wide sales by the end of 2010. ... Analysts also say there are number of things that could derail Android's growth, including Oracle's lawsuit over Java patents."
Re:Thank you editors (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Thank you editors (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Does this take into account... (Score:5, Informative)
There are four national networks, and they are owned by AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint. Verizon and Sprint use CDMA rather than GSM, and they won't activate each other's devices. You want Verizon, you have to buy a Verizon phone; same for Sprint.
If you want to activate an unlocked phone on AT&T or T-Mobile, you can. However, each of them has different frequencies assigned for 3G service. As a result, you can only get EDGE data rates if your phone isn't designed for their network.
In other words, since you have to buy a phone that only works on one carrier, and since only T-Mobile offers a lower-cost plan if you bring your own phone, there is a strong incentive to buy a new phone every two years with the carrier subsidy - you won't get cheaper service if you forgo it.
Re:Does this take into account... (Score:3, Informative)
Ugh, that sounds horrible and extremely anti-competitive. AFAIK we have about 50 different mobile operators for soon to be 5 million people in Norway. And they all use GSM. If you want to switch to another operator you can use the same phone and telephone number. :)
It would explain the operator locked phones you have though, thank you
Re:Thank you editors (Score:5, Informative)
"Hell, Google's Nexus One direct customer sales only survived from January to July 2010. It's a volatile market, and products come and go very quickly."
That was very much a one off experiment by a single vendor in direct sales, so it's hardly a great example of a trend in the mobile industry.
"Look at the Motorola Razr. Kids all thought it was the coolest thing ever. Plenty of them hit the market. They only survived from the end of 2004 to mid 2007."
Might I suggest the take a look at how the RAZR did? I'll give you a hint- it achieved over 3 times the number of handset sales the iPhone did in a it's first 3 year period. Hardly a good example of a failed phone, it was one of the most succesful phones in history, coming only behind Nokia's ultra cheap handsets like the 1100 which have been lapped up by countries like China and India, as well as African nations.
If you're going to criticise mobile phone marketplace predictions it's generally a good idea to have a clue about it first. Citing one of the most succesful mobile phones of all time as an example of something that didn't do as well as predicted because it only lasted 3 years is silly because it clearly was a phenomenal success.
There's a good basis to the idea that Android will continue to grow and that's because it's got the support of so many vendors, and certainly it faces issues, but right now it's growth is incredible. Sustainable? who knows, but it's a better bet as the next contender to the crown in the mobile phone industry compared to other mobile phone OS' who are pretty much stagnant or are even in decline. Perhaps the best thing Android has going for it though because by nature of it's relative openness it's a candidate to replace the next generation of phones lapped up by the poorer markets like India, Africa, and China, whilst things like iOS and RIM's Blackberry OS, possible even Windows Mobile have no real cheap hardware platforms- effectively right now other than perhaps MeeGo or whatever Nokia is calling it this week, Android is the only real contender to Symbian dominated markets without detriment to being a strong player in the high end smartphone market too.
Re:Thank you editors (Score:4, Informative)
Before introducing any products, Steve Jobs always puts up the numbers of how dominant Apple is. I would say, they do care.