Ten Things Mobile Phones Will Make Obsolete 778
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timothy
from the try-finding-a-payphone-now dept.
from the try-finding-a-payphone-now dept.
An anonymous reader writes "recombu.com has an article examining ten things mobile phones will make obsolete, including phone booths, wristwatches and handheld games consoles. It's interesting to see how many devices have been absorbed into mobile phone technology, and it raises the question: are we better off having everything in one device? The author poignantly concludes that while it's great to have so much power at our fingertips, it does mean that some of us will rely on mobile phones for even basic mental tasks, which is great until the battery runs out." See also Isaac Asimov's The Feeling of Power.
yep... (Score:5, Insightful)
...why have a watch on your wrist when you can fish it out of your pocket.
At least pocket watches kept the time even if you were out of cell service.
Not wristwatches (Score:5, Insightful)
I have a flip phone that displays the time in large, bold numbers on the outside of the phone and even syncs time automatically. But I still use my wristwatch whenver I'm wearing it, because a) I don't have to fish it out of my pocket, b) it's always right there, unlike my phone which more often than not is out of arm's reach. Not to mention the fact that a watch battery lasts years, unlike the 1 week max the phone battery lasts.
More generally, I thought the lesson the original iPod taught us was that specialized devices tend to do a much better job than multi-function devices because they allow the UI and features to be specialized for a specific task. Phone cameras, clocks, and other doo-dads are great, but work best as stand-ins for the real thing. They are what you use when you don't have anything better at hand.
No P&S camera (Score:5, Insightful)
I have yet to see a phone that can take anywhere near as good a picture as some of the most basic point and shoot cameras.
A load of BS (Score:5, Insightful)
Gaming on a phone is awful. Unless that is properly addressed, then the likes of the Nintendo DS won't have to worry and I'm sure Nintendo isn't seeing how many DS units they're selling.
If I am going to do work during my commute it will be on a laptop or netbook, not a mobile. I suspect a lot of people feel the same way.
Decent cameras will never go away because a phone will never be able to match the feature set of the camera....even compact ones, imo.
Watches will always exist, if anything, as a fashion accessory.
Convergence. (Score:5, Insightful)
It really is amazing how many features they keep cramming into these tiny devices. Maybe I'm a dreamer, but I am hopeful that in the next couple of years somebody will figure out a way to make reliable phone calls with these things.
#11 --Free Thought. (Score:5, Insightful)
-Not that we can't benefit from free thinkers. We'll just dramatically reduce the number of them available for all the important things our race needs to accomplish. And, I suppose, zombies need free thinkers to manipulate them, (since they're not much good for anything else), so Free Thought is not entirely redundant. But among cell phone users, it's pretty much a dead issue.
Oh, and if through your muddled thinking, you believe you are taking offense to this, don't worry. That's just the ego programming kicking in. Don't worry about it. You can't do anything about it anyway, except allow it to direct all of your behavior 24/7.
It's amazingly easy to manipulate the perpetually ignorant and dazed. Good thing I'm not evil. Too bad your masters are.
-FL
Not 'til I'm dead, most likely (Score:4, Insightful)
...which is probably sooner than I'd prefer, but still a couple of decades away at least.
Wristwatches - I know people who use their phone. My watch is faster, convenient for me. It's a fashion accessory for many (in addition to their fashion phones)
Bedside alarm clocks - I can see this, but until shows the time without me having to touch it (and without it lighting the whole room with the back light), wakes me up with NPR, and increased the light in my room to simulate a sunrise, I'll stick with my beside box. (Okay, two boxes...it's a SunRizr that does the lights)
MP3 players - I'm sure all the iPhone guys are saying "hell yes." I've got a WM phone, and while it does great things the iPhone can't, it sucks donkey balls as a music player. The average phone is going to have to get a lot better - and a lot bigger storage (which will happen "soon") - to take over as my portable player. I'll still keep my SwimP# for the pool though...I don't think many phones would thrive in a aquatic environment.
Landline home phones - Okay, just call me an old fart; I'll probably always have one. The uptime is much better than cell.
Compact digital cameras - they're going to have to get massively better. I'm talking several orders of magnitude. Maybe before I die. Maybe.
Netbooks - keyboards and screens that don't require massive scrolling or a magnifying glass. 'Nuff said.
Handheld games consoles - Hmmmm...not much use for one, so... *shrug*
Paper - sorry, I still print directions and confirmations. This may change. Someday. But I'm awfully attached to dead trees. Probably has to do with my note taking desires, and the aforementioned need for a magnifying glass or scrolling for all but the simplest of things on a phone.
Thinking - The 'net has already made that obsolete. Now get off my lawn...
Man, I need to get back to work.
Re:No P&S camera (Score:2, Insightful)
Thats because phones while having great resolution all have rubbish lenses.
You simply cant fit a good camera lens into something 10-20mm thick.
Even those lenses are a sales gimmick.
Re:yep... (Score:4, Insightful)
It's pretty obtuse to think that wristwatches are going to become obsolete. Hate to break it to you, but no. Wristwatches are far more than just a device to tell time. They're a symbol of status and of self-expression. Don't think so? Wristwatch builders keep pushing the envelope of what is possible with micro-mechanics, and that is what makes them attractive, and special to collectors.
You think your iPhone is going to get you laid... or any serious street cred? It's within reach of even below-average citizens, so it doesn't get you any status points. No, there's just something about a fine Rolex or Omega Speedmaster on your wrist. A feat of mechanical engineering and precision manufacturing that NO iPhone can *EVER* replace.
Just try pawning an iPhone and see how much you get.
Same Old Song, A Jack of all Trades (Score:5, Insightful)
You keep hearing about the things that phones are going to replace and, at least for me, it's never been true.
I like having a Nintendo DS. The iPhone has not provided a game with the depth of most AAA DS titles. It's lack of buttons is a serious problem with gaming.
The camera isn't as good as any half way decent point and shoot. I haven't gotten a chance to play with any GPS software for any smart phone, but I hear there are limitations (including the need for cell service) that stand alone GPSes don't have.
Even the music functions of an iPhone aren't as good as a regular iPod or (gasp, because I love Apple gear) a Zune.
And yeah, you can use it as a watch, but any fashionable man knows that a watch is how a guy shows off. It's the only acceptable piece of jewelry for the well dressed man.
Even today's best smart phones are just communications devices with varying degrees of success. Occasionally a smart phone is "good enough" in a pinch; photographers like to say the best camera is the one you have with you, which certainly applies to smart phones. But if I know I want to play games or take pictures, I take my DS or my camera, or whatever. Phones haven't and won't - because each thing needs its own UI and software guidelines, no device is going to be able to do it all well.
Many features that I don't even want. (Score:5, Insightful)
Early camera phones where painfully bad but strong sales proved that there was a demand for them.
When I got my phone, I bought it because it was the cheapest phone that had the ability to see who's calling without having to answer. It so happens to have come with a camera which I never use because it sucks. Now, are the camera manufacturers counting my sale as someone who wanted a camera? Probably. There's a few other features built into the phone that i looked at and never used because I have no use for them.
That's the thing, there's only so many choices and it's impossible to get a phone that has a feature you want without getting a bunch of features that you don't want. And if you find one, it may not be supported by your cell carrier.
Re:!begsthequestion (Score:1, Insightful)
This is a losing battle; get over it already.
Re:Wristwatches are just plain convenient (Score:5, Insightful)
[X] wristwatch battery doesn't go dead every 3 days
Re:yep... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Wristwatches are just plain convenient (Score:3, Insightful)
Neo-luddite (Score:5, Insightful)
Poignant? People tried to say the same thing about calculators in the 50s. Tools augment human capability, they can be a crutch but we're a little far from walking in the jungle throwing spears, aren't we?
Re:Wristwatches are just plain convenient (Score:4, Insightful)
I haven't used a watch in almost two decades. Simply put, clocks are ubiquitous. In fact there's several in front of me right now - one on the computer, one on the VCR, and one on the television. When I was a student the time was above every classroom door, and at work, it's typically on a nearby wall or on my PC or on the break room TV. There is almost no time when I am not within sight of a clock which is why the watch I bought 20 years ago still looks new.
From Asimov's story:
"Divide twenty-seven by thirteen. Take it to six places."
Five minutes later Shuman said, "Two point oh seven six nine two three."
Is it sad that I've forgotten how to do long division? Let's see:
13|27 == 2.0769
..-26
=====
100
-91
===
90
78
==
12
Okay I'm bored with that. In 8th grade we used to do pages of this stuff, and now I've practically forgotten it all. That's sad.
Re:Same Old Song, A Jack of all Trades (Score:1, Insightful)
but any fashionable man knows that a watch is how a guy shows off. It's the only acceptable piece of jewelry for the well dressed man.
Cufflinks?
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
My current wristwatch has been happily chugging away telling time since before any cell phone ever existed and will still be chugging along quite possibly when something else comes along to displace the cell phone.
The death of quality speciality devices is a bit premature at this point.
This is also true of good cameras and mp3/media players.
12 ways watches are better than cell phones (Score:2, Insightful)
1. GBP 10 is not $10.
2. Your cell phone was probably subsidized by your cell phone company, if you bought it new. Try buying a new cell phone without a plan, and no subsidy. they'll be more than $10.
3. I don't need to recharge my wrist watch every few days. How many days can you talk on your cell phone run without a recharge?
4. Does your cell phone fit conveniently on your wrist like a watch? Or would you have to duct-tape it?
5. Is your cell phone as light as a watch?
6. Can you make calls on your cell phone without some sort of plan, even if it's pay-as-you-go? I can still tell time with my watch - no plan needed.
7. My watch doesn't have "dead zones" where it stops telling time. Does your cell phone have dead zones where you can't make calls?
8. I don't have to worry about my watch interrupting an important meeting with an embarrassing ring-tone.
9. If someone steals my watch, I don't have to worry that they have a lot of my contacts.
10. A thief can't run u a big bill for me on my watch.
11. I don't have to back up my watch.
12. It's legal to look at my watch while driving.
I have both a cell phone and a watch. Each one has its own place. Maybe you've heard of the concept - "right tool for the job."
Re:Many features that I don't even want. (Score:3, Insightful)
I use a camera to take images I want to keep.
Until phones get better at allowing me to do that, they will continue "collecting dust" in this regard.
We even have a nice expression for this "Jack of all trades and master of none".
Before something gets uploaded anywhere, it at least needs to be worth the digital exhibitionism.
I own the largest wiss army knife they sell (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:!begsthequestion (Score:5, Insightful)
The meaning of the phrase has changed.
The phrase used to refer to "a logical fallacy in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in the premise."[1]
Now it means, "I'm trying to sound like I'm well educated, but I'm not."
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question [wikipedia.org]
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
They're a symbol of status and of self-expression.
So are phones.
I was in New York City two weekends ago, and a guy that I was hanging out with was getting ready to go have a big business meeting. He was very concerned about getting a "Droid" in time for the meeting, because that is the phone with all the buzz right now... he could care less about what the phone actually does. We actually suggested that he buy a Rolex instead, and he kind of scoffed at us like we were dinosaurs or something.
So while I'm sure you are right, and that rich guys will always have wrist watches - don't think that they aren't also concerned about what phone they are carrying. Designers have caught on, too, which is why you can buy abominations like this [pradaphonebylg.com].
Re:No P&S camera (Score:5, Insightful)
It's next to impossible. Phones need to be very small, lightweight and damage-resistant, the electronics need to be exceedingly low-power and the electronics for the camera and the electronics for the radio transceiver can't conflict.
That last requirement means is you use digital devices that produce analogue signals, the resolution on the ADC has to be so crappy that the RFI from the radio doesn't screw up the picture AND the voltage changes when a call is picked up or an alarm goes off or what have you can't throw the ADC.
The low-power means no fancy, power-hungry logic, the software zoom and other floating-point logic won't be terribly high precision, and the image compression algorithm will need to be light on the quality.
The size and damage-resistance impacts what sort of lens you can use, how rigid the structure has to be, how much the user can just seriously screw up the device before the image quality drops. Even for a disposable standalone camera, it's practical to put in some quite acceptable optics.
Even when such devices are of a size comparable to that OF the phone, you've got to remember that the camera is sans radio (or radios, for phones that have bluetooth and/or wifi and/or AM/FM tuners as well as the standard phone radio), sans keyboard, sans quite a bit of space-hungry stuff that phones either need or have as "features".
Re:yep... (Score:5, Insightful)
and will still be chugging along quite possibly when something else comes along to displace the cell phone.
It occurs to me that at some point in time the core function of the cell phone will be replaced by a device small enough to fit around your wrist...
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
He said a testament, not an important point. If we all die in World War 3 and some aliens come in a thousand years and find a digital watch, they'll see that we have advanced microelectronics and the advanced chemistry needed to make a battery, and its existence proves that we have other computers that do so much more. A mechanical watch will just prove to them that we can make good gears and fit them together, something which has practically no use outside of timekeeping (ok, and mechanical calculators).
Re:No P&S camera (Score:3, Insightful)
Well, there's that, but also bear in mind that cameras can afford to put a bit more power into the electronics, so that JPEG compression can be of higher quality.
Doubling the number of pixels on the CCD but more than halving the amount of retrievable data stored will give you a net loss of quality. High-res CCDs are relatively cheap and since the phones don't advertise the resolution of the image as stored, it's a great marketing ploy.
Re:!begsthequestion (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:12 ways watches are better than cell phones (Score:2, Insightful)
4. Does your cell phone fit conveniently on your wrist like a watch? Or would you have to duct-tape it?
No, but it fits nicely in my pocket. Maybe I don't find having something on my wrist convenient.
5. Is your cell phone as light as a watch?
Have you ever held a quality wristwatch. Those bad boys weigh a ton. My phone probably weighs half as much as my friends watch.
7. My watch doesn't have "dead zones" where it stops telling time. Does your cell phone have dead zones where you can't make calls?
I don't know if I've ever owned a cell phone that couldn't keep it's own time. They use cell towers to update when I get out of airplane flights but they still keep track of time without a connection.
8. I don't have to worry about my watch interrupting an important meeting with an embarrassing ring-tone.
Nor do I with my phone. It's called silent mode. I know of plenty of people who's watches have tripped their alarms in the middle of meetings. It's all about the user not the tool.
12. It's legal to look at my watch while driving.
Why look at your watch when you're dash has a clock.
Form Factor (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Not 'til I'm dead, most likely (Score:3, Insightful)
Until cell phones that can survive a 10 story fall onto concrete come around, they can't fully replace a simple notepad.
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
True. No one has ever had a need for good and precise gearing for anything other than time keeping, which is completely useless as it is.
No one has ever needed gearing in their motors. Or for tuning string instruments.
The previous commentors are idiots (Score:5, Insightful)
People, people, this debate is very simple and obvious.
For any given electronic device of a given size and cost, a specialty device will always do a better job than a generalist device. A portable ipod is (slightly) better than an iphone. A portable game player such as a PSP or DS is also better than an iphone. Handheld GPS systems, same story. A watch is a better time keeping device than a cell phone, with more time related features. A compact digital camera with a bigger lens is much better than the camera in a phone. And so on and so forth.
But the point is, for MOST users 99% of the time, the inferior function on your cell phone, especially a cutting edge phone like the iphone or the Droid DOES THE JOB. You only lose a few seconds pulling your phone out rather than looking at your watch. The pictures taken by the camera on the iphone or droid are more than sharp enough for posting to a resolution limited site like facebook. The iphone has a fairly good GPU, and many small and creative 2d games work great on it, so it's almost as entertaining as the PSP or DS. The GPS may be a little fuzzy, but it's usually close enough to find your way around. And so on.
So, the inferiority of the phone's functions are nearly always MASSIVELY OUTWEIGHED by the fact that you only carry ONE device rather than a whole batman belt worth of them. Size and weight and convenience means that for 99% of users, it's easier and cheaper just to buy a smartphone and use it exclusively for all of the above functions.
Re:Wristwatches are just plain convenient (Score:3, Insightful)
... that anyone who knows anything about it will be able to identify as a cheap knock-off, and you as a wanna-be, within moments. If you want to use a wristwatch as a status symbol, that's fine - but you actually need to have the status (and wealth.) Nothing sadder than trying to write a symbolic check that you can't existentially cash.
Re:!begsthequestion (Score:3, Insightful)
The meaning of the phrase has changed.
The phrase used to refer to "a logical fallacy in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in the premise."[1]
Now it means, "I'm trying to sound like I'm well educated, but I'm not."
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question [wikipedia.org]
Fortunately, the educated still refer to it as petitio principii, thus distinguishing themselves from those who use the mutable and imprecise vernacular.
Rechargeable devices have a monthly fee (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm 26 and still like making notes on what I'm reading during a meeting. I also go to the physical library for paper books
You can't full-text search a library book, nor can you jot notes in it. Electronic books allow for both: the computer can generate an exhaustive index before you're done reading the first page, and the notes can be stored separately from the text, each section of the notes referring to a section of the text.
I [...] refuse to pay a monthly fee for my mp3 player with apps.
Your iPod Touch or Archos 5 probably has a lithium battery. Lithium batteries have a finite shelf life, and the replacement every couple years is indistinguishable from a monthly fee. Granted, this fee is less than the fee for battery + phone service, but it's still present.
Re:12 ways watches are better than cell phones (Score:4, Insightful)
>> 1. GBP 10 is not $10.
My phone was free. Same with my last phone and the one before that.
>> 2. Your cell phone was probably subsidized by your cell phone company, if you bought it new. Try buying a new cell phone without a plan, and no subsidy. they'll be more than $10.
Of course, but that doesn't change that you can get them free from many companies. Can I get a subsidized Rolex anywhere?
>> 3. I don't need to recharge my wrist watch every few days. How many days can you talk on your cell phone run without a recharge?
About a week. Not really an issue unless you're out in the wilderness for a long time, and then I don't give a shit about what time it is.
>> 4. Does your cell phone fit conveniently on your wrist like a watch? Or would you have to duct-tape it?
Having something strapped to my wrist is anything but convenient. It can get caught on stuff, I have to take it off and put it back on several times a day (showers, bed, etc).
>> 5. Is your cell phone as light as a watch?
Pretty damn close if you're talking about a quality mechanical watch + strap. Either way it's not an inconvenience.
>> 6. Can you make calls on your cell phone without some sort of plan, even if it's pay-as-you-go? I can still tell time with my watch - no plan needed.
That's retarded. I can tell time without a plan but a watch can never make a call.
>> 7. My watch doesn't have "dead zones" where it stops telling time. Does your cell phone have dead zones where you can't make calls?
No. I've never owned a phone that wouldn't tell the time without service. I'm sure such a braindamaged phone does exist, but that's not the norm.
>> 8. I don't have to worry about my watch interrupting an important meeting with an embarrassing ring-tone.
Ever owned a digital watch with an alarm? They do the same thing.
>> 9. If someone steals my watch, I don't have to worry that they have a lot of my contacts.
Password protect your phone or don't store your contacts in there if you're so paranoid.
>> 10. A thief can't run u a big bill for me on my watch.
Not an issue if you cancel your plan when you notice your phone's missing.
>> 11. I don't have to back up my watch.
I also don't have to back up my cat. Doesn't mean it's relevant to the discussion.
>> 12. It's legal to look at my watch while driving.
Your car doesn't have a clock? Why would you need to look at either of them to tell the time?
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
I have never heard of a phone losing it's time when going out of reception.
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
There will always be specialist devices, but if the iPhone was as cheap as your TRACPhone, and as functional as your computer and as reliable as your landline and uhm.. had a fold-out knife, then what purpose would each device have separately, other than to take up more space?
I'm just illustrating the point.
A DSLR is a specialist device. A typewriter (another example) is a specialist device, that some people still use, but was basically obsoleted by the multi-purpose device called "a computer".
There will always be a DSLR, but for the average person, it's likely we can continue to improve camera-phone capabilities to eclipse modern point-and-shoot cameras, at which point, who really needs better, other than a specialist ("photographer")? Same goes for watches, alarm clocks, etc.
I ceased using my hotel room alarm clocks when I got my iphone, because I have my alarms already configured and I'm certain that it will wake me (some hotel alarms don't) and I can turn it on in the dark, without hunting around for my glasses.
Additionally, isn't the iPhone (aka iPodTouch+) basically regarded as one of the premier music players?
I think this article is right-on.
Re:12 ways watches are better than cell phones (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:yep... (Score:3, Insightful)
You must have a pathetically weak wrist. A watch, like a ring, necklace, hat, or any other item of clothing, is very easy to become accustomed to for normal humans.