Android 2.0 — Competition Against the iPhone and the Rest 347
GMGruman writes "Every few months, it seems, there is a new 'iPhone killer.' Android 2.0, in the guise of the Motorola Droid, is the latest such 'killer.' But what will it really take to beat or match the iPhone (single page), and does Android or any other mobile OS have the right stuff? There's a lot more to the answer than is usually discussed. This article takes a look at the strengths that may allow Droid and Android 2.0 to provide strong competition to devices like the iPhone and the Blackberry, as well as the obstacles it continues to face that could inhibit adoption."
What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:5, Insightful)
The fastest way to fail (Score:2, Insightful)
is to market yourself as a 'iPhone killer'
Horrible Article (Score:5, Insightful)
I hate to say it, but it just made no sense and backed up almost none of the opinions it presented.
You can't kill the iphone by trying to copy it. You have to:
1) Find a way to steal it's best customers in a way it can't keep up with.
2) Wait for it to get big, fat, and lazy.
Just copying the leader may get you investment dollars, but it won't get you market share.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:5, Insightful)
The biggest reason this will not be an iPod killer is that it is made by Motorola, a bloated bureaucratic mess of a company known for poor quality. The Razr was a disaster. How will they compete with more stylish Apple or more nimble LG?
Re:Android 256MB App Storage Limit (Score:3, Insightful)
It's not a real problem.
Several options exists to install apps to the SD-card.
It's also possible for individual apps (like games) to store everything but the executable on the SD-card.
One problem killing the iPhone... (Score:5, Insightful)
One problem killing the iPhone, is that most of the iPhone's weaknesses are one policy change away from disappearing.
Enough people want background apps? Well there they are.
Enough people want customizable lock screens? Alright, that's easy enough.
Enough people want shared file storage? There, done.
Enough people want post-hoc approval of apps, like Android? No problem, it'll save Apple time and money to boot.
Enough people want unsigned apps distributed outside the app store? Ok, here you go.
Enough people want Flash, or other browser plugins? Fine, Adobe has been clamoring to put Flash on iPhone since it's inception.
Enough people want root access? Fine, administration is their problem.
Apple keeps those measures of control because they help to protect their platform's image from incompetent or unscrupulous coders, and their negative impact on most users is relatively minor. If that balance ever shifts, either due to more competent coders (supposedly Flash 10.1 is heavily optimized) or more demanding users (with friends whose phones do some or all of the above), the rules can change in an instant.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:5, Insightful)
The Razr was a disaster.
Really? The Razr is commonly touted as Motorola's last great success. I knew several people who bought, and were happy with, the Razr, including my wife. I considered one, but decided that I'd rather keep the LG that randomly stops working. (I'm not a big fan of ubiquitous communication.)
To respond to your point more directly, Motorola are not competing by themselves. they're using a form factor that is proven (see Nokia devices for several examples.) Motorola are using an OS that has already seen modest success; an OS sharpened by a company (google) who strive for ubiquity. The Droid also has some components that the iPhone is missing.
As long as their implementation is sound, I see no reason why Verizon, Motorola and Google shouldn't enjoy profits from the Droid. They are entering an established market; each is an experienced competitor; and there are lots of us who have been shut out of the iPhone market because we are Verizon customers. (I've heard complaints, but frankly, I've had nothing but positive experience with the company.) Further, Verizon seems to be marketing this harder than Motorola or Google. I have modest respect for Verizon, and find it difficult to believe that they would allow Motorola to sully their name.
I believe that this phone will enjoy moderate success. It doesn't have the cachet of Apple, but it's entering a market with a good deal of potential. Besides, Motorola is getting hungry: They played a big part in defining the cell phone market, and they nearly died by failing to follow through with their earlier success. Motorola has lots to lose, and I think that they really want to get it right.
All that aside, I figure that it's an open platform. If Motorola really gets it wrong, within 3 months, I'll be able to update it with a more friendly platform. I've already told my wife that she's getting one, and finally, after 7 years with the same phone, I intend to buy a new phone.
Maybe you hate Motorola phones, but I'm really looking forward to the Droid. I hope that it lives up to my expectations.
Re:The Iphone is not the Mona Lisa of Tech! (Score:5, Insightful)
1) It forgets to mention the 1 major thing that gave the Iphone such a major push forward. Marketing!
Actually, I'd say the major thing that gave the iPhone such a major push was the fact that it was the best thing at the time. People seem to have forgotten the awful "smart" phones we had before Apple decided to shake things up. The iPhone may or may not still be the best thing around (I don't know), but it seems to me we probably would have no Android today without the fresh competition Apple provided.
So will Android devices overtake the iPhone? Well I sure hope so. It would be pretty sad indeed if Android wasn't able to gain any headway seeing as how it will be on multiple devices and multiple networks and there is only one iPhone on one network. Ultimately, I think Android will be considered a success, but I also think it won't have much impact on Apple.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:4, Insightful)
Too bad Motorola had monkeys design the user interface and idiots write the software. Completely fucked up a superbly designed piece of hardware.
Re:Horrible Article (Score:5, Insightful)
The ability not to have to jump ship for the "latest and greatest" might be a huge feature of Android, especially if you are tied into a contract. While some phones will be carrier exclusive without a doubt, Android itself is cross-network. Android's power is not int he G1, Magic, Droid, Hero or any other phone but in the fact it can easily saturate the market better than any other platform currently offered. When even "dumb phones" can run the apps you have written for Android, it is going to reach more of the market than Apple's high-end exclusive offerings and make it easier than "jump through hoops to get it to run without using expensive data plans" problems that JavaME has.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:5, Insightful)
I disagree.
Both Android and the iPhone OS are ultraportable computing platforms. The iPhone isn't really a phone per se, but a mobile computing device with phone functionality. Apple will even sell you one sans phone if you want it.
Successful competitors to the iPhone will be those that understand that the point is to make a better ultraportable computing platform, not necessarily a better phone. I think Google may be able to do that, but I don't think RIM can, and Microsoft's development team appears to be a circular firing squad.
As usual, competition is only good for end users, so I hope Android does well.
iPhone Killer? Why would Google want that? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:What will it really take? Apps Apps Apps (Score:5, Insightful)
Spoken like a review from a windowshopper.
Look, there is nothing special about the Iphone OS any more.
That just isn't true. Android 2.0 is pretty attractive on the surface, but it's still plagued with UI and usability kinks that have yet to be worked out. Multi-touch still isn't quite right, nor is it fluid. Android's interaction on the desktop is much better than most of its competitors, but it still lags behind the iTunes experience. There are plenty of advantages to the iPhone platform, including the iPhone OS.
When someone writes a wrapper for these App store Apps that allows them to run on Android, its game over for this particular advantage.
That's what they said about Linux and Windows in 1996. Easier said than done. We're still waiting.
But lets face it, the hardware has no particular advantage any more
The pile of hardware components was never the advantage to begin with. The devil's in the details. It'd be a trivial effort to out-spec the iPhone's hardware, but that doesn't get you anywhere on its own. Look at the terrible state of video playback at the time on smartphones even with the same muscle as the first generation iPhone.
Whether you love the iPhone or hate it, it's indisputable that it was a kick in the pants for everyone else. Now they're actually trying to make good products, and competitors are addressing their failings and adapting what they can from Apple's lead. That's how it should have worked, even if the iPhone never existed, but it just didn't. Even Windows Mobile, while still painful to use, is at least easier to look at these days.
But Android has the advantage of youth, and none of the baggage of middle age.
Drama much? The iPhone is "middle-aged"? What does that make RIM/Blackberry? A pensioner?
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:4, Insightful)
Um, I believe the 'monkeys' you are referring to work for the major carriers in the US. Each of the carriers decided that the phone needed to be customized for their specific customers (maybe they've classified which kind of idiot signs up with them). This of course makes advertising the capabilities of the phone itself difficult (at least in the US) for Motorola, as the UI and even what features the phone had was totally different from carrier to carrier (other than, "You can dial a number on it").
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:3, Insightful)
The Droid also has some components that the iPhone is missing.
Let's just correct this, though I know it was in the news item to.
It's not "The Droid", it's "Motorola Sholes". The Droid name seem to be something Verizon will put into the names of their Android phones. Also on the HTC Eres if that was the name of that phone.
Also before it was released I was hoping for something special, atleast in the lines of HTCs Sense UI. But now it looks like it's a basic and standard Android 2.0 installation with nothing special in it (not necessary a bad thing.) So if we get some other Android 2.0 phones, which I'm sure we will, they will have all the (software) benefits of the Motorola Sholes.
So that leaves it at the upgraded hardware compared to for instance the HTC phones.
So is this a remarkable new truly unique phone which will kick the iPhones butt? Most likely not. It's just an evolutionary upgrade of the Android phones, which will continue to evolve.
Personally I'd take an Android phone over the iPhone any day no matter what if it can "kill" the iPhone or not. Let's just hope the number of applications and quality catches up (which it may or may not ..), it would be kinda weird to complain on how the iPhone is vendor locked in while it still has more features and software. Open and free doesn't become much better if it actually suck when used.
Many factors of success (Score:4, Insightful)
In the past, I have asserted that social popularity trumps technical superiority. Beta was superior to VHS and yet VHS won. Why? It was more popular... some would argue that it was more popular because porn was not allowed on Beta. Whatever the case, VHS was more popular and so it won.
iPhone is ridiculously popular. I don't care to go into why it is popular, but I will say I don't fully understand it because I tend to measure things by a different set of metrics than non-nerds. Whatever the cause of its popularity, iPhone will not be toppled as "king" of whatever market it rules with attack/smear ads and it won't be toppled by technical superiority or versatility. It might be toppled by convenience if that were possible and it would have to be convenient to leave it behind and/or migrate from it.
iPhone isn't just a phone. It's a hand-held computer with software applications that people use. In the past, moving from one phone to another was a matter of exporting data and importing that same data into the next phone. iPhone has applications for which there may not be equals on other phones. iPhone has applications that many have spent significant amounts of money on and people aren't willing to dump things like that so easily.
Another means of entrenchment iPhone enjoys is the connection it has with a person's identity. In much the same way people build self esteem rooting for their favorite teams in sports, the iPhone enjoys a strong fan base.
Microsoft calls what they have "critical mass." Microsoft isn't getting toppled because they have critical mass. Other reasons don't play into the current state of Microsoft nearly as much as that. People are not happy with Microsoft, but not unhappy enough to move to something else.
iPhone has not achieved critical mass, but many of the factors that contribute to the state of critical mass are present in iPhone and it is certainly moving in that direction.
Still, the iPhone doesn't rule in the way the hype and attention would seem to suggest. A recent trip through an airport showed me that Blackberry outnumbers iPhone 10 to 1. That's just an estimate I pulled out of my ass, but it's probably not far off. iPhone is limited by its exclusivity to AT&T (in the U.S.) and many people aren't interested enough in iPhone to change their carrier, but since the odds are that their non-AT&T carrier will carry an iPhone competitor, people are more inclined to give those competitors a try. Provided that the alternatives are good enough to capture an audience the way iPhone has (and that's not likely in my opinion) the iPhone's primary weakness can be exploited successfully.
To be clear, the primary weakness of the iPhone is its exclusivity to AT&T. It limits its growth potential and its flexibility. There are other factors contributing to its weaknesses, but its close ties with and influence under AT&T are at the very least holding it back and quite likely to be the most significant factor that will lead to its death.
Re:Android 256MB App Storage Limit (Score:4, Insightful)
You are right. But just because Motorola designed the phone, doesn't mean google had nothing to do with it...This is as much a google device as it is Motorola.
And here you've summarized the problem without stating it.
The iPhone is one company's product: Apple. Really it's one person's phone: Steve's.
And that is why it'll be better: because Steve will fire anyone who makes a phone less than he wants.
Google will enable a superior phone. Moto will fail to deliver. But I hope that someone else delivers. I really dislike the iPhone closed platform.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:2, Insightful)
As an end user I don't really care that much whatever my product is dominating the market or not, in this case third party titles affect things but beyond that no.
I guess I shouldn't go into the mp3 player market so I'll just leave it that there is plenty of alternatives which will be just as good or better as the iPod (except the touch maybe since that's more of a crippled iPhone which gives it multiple advantages not into the pmp-area.)
Poorly executed and planned text-writing to follow:
Anyway, _IF_ Apple manages to hurt Nintendos sales I would definitely buy a Nintendo branded Android Phone with gaming capability within a minute if they decided to release one. I find the whole OMG APPLE WILL TAKE OVER THE GAMING MARKET hype a little weird though considering Apple have never gave a crap about gamers and gaming and left their whole computer line without games (no need to give exceptions, I know you can play a few but that's certainly not thanks to Apple ..)
My personal experience with Apple is good ideas and user-interfaces but shitty software which never evolves and expensive second-rate experience hardware and over here outside the US expect shitty consumer service to. With Nintendo you usually get a good value with awesome consumer care and quality.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens but as I said if Apple for some reason actually become a gaming platform contender I really hope Nintendo sees that coming and react on their own. With Android they don't have to care that much themselves about developing the software and user interface and such but could more or less just rather slap it in their.
I'm really confident that a "Nintendo phone" would be a way more serious contender than an iPhone with games. And at Nintendo price levels + quality .. (Old wishes was that Apple + Nintendo would start doing things together but I guess my image of Apple has changed since then and both of them have managed to evolve quite well on their own since then.)
Re:Not iPhone, but others may be at risk. (Score:3, Insightful)
I don't know if Android would take that large of a chunk out of Blackberry's user base. It will probably draw away Pearl users and small-businesses, but Blackberry's core market (medium to large enterprises) will probably stay on that particular platform. Exchange integration is great (for the 95% of companies that use it), but as far as I am aware, on Blackberry with BES and WinMo w/ SCCM have true central management capabilities that enterprises want.
As you put in your post, Android will probably have the biggest effect on Palm, especially since they've seemed to tie their fate to Sprint. I can see Palm being bought out by RIM in five years or so. It will also be the final nail in the coffin of Windows Mobile, but that shouldn't be a surprise as Microsoft has been licensing ActiveSync to any mobile software developer that wants to pay for it (there is even a Blackberry implementation of it).
Apple will probably be hurt more than people realize, and the Android platform will play a small part in it. The iPhone is a great product, but in the United States, it is restricted to AT&T's now overburdened network while the Android "platform" will be available on most carriers in some form. I don't think that many iPhone users will switch to the Android, though, but it will attract many potential Apple customers who were holding out because they didn't want to give any money to AT&T.
Hardware had issues too though (Score:5, Insightful)
I bought the original Razr when it just came into market. It was a great phone. Beautifully designed, sleek and stylish even by today's standards.
I had one for a few years also. It was everything everyone claims Apple products are - style with little substance.
As you noted, the software was ghastly. But frankly I had issues with the hardware alone as well.
The buttons, were the worst I ever had on the phone as far as being easy to type. I was always missing numbers with those damn slanted keys with hardly any feedback as to where you were.
But the worst sin, was making a flip phone with BUTTONS ON THE SIDE. This totally eliminated the advantage of the clamshell where you couldn't accidentally hit buttons. I hung up on people pulling the phone from my pocket and often slightly changed settings getting it out.
It did feel good in the hand when talking or just holding it but like I said they had issues with both hardware and software.
Re:The Iphone is not the Mona Lisa of Tech! (Score:4, Insightful)
No one gives a shit except geeks who've never actually tried an iPhone keyboard for more than 4 seconds, and hence haven't discovered you can type faster on it than with a physical one.
2 reasons why a touchscreen keyboard is unsuitable for me:
1. no tactile feedback. I'm afraid I like to be able to feel the keys before I press them so I know my finger is in the right place.
2. I want to be able to see what's on the screen without a virtual keyboard covering it up.
I'll admit that (1) might be something that I would learn to do without if I used an iPhone all the time, but no amount of practice is going to prevent (2) from being a problem - I get an 80x25 terminal window on my phone, which I use for doing things like remotely administering servers; reducing the visible area of that terminal to 3 or 4 lines so that I can fit a keyboard on the screen would make it very unusable. Sure, most people aren't using their phones for administering servers, but this is a major reason for me buying a smartphone since it means I can avoid carrying a laptop around most of the time.
When will you iPhone fanboys get it into your head that a single design of device *never* suits everyone - just because you find a design choice to be ok doesn't mean that everyone else will. Choice is good.
100,000 apps. Seriously, it's *that* important.
I imagine that Symbian has well over 100,000 apps. Most of them are utter shit. Raw numbers are meaningless - if there were 100,000 _good_ apps then that would be something worth shouting about, but that's not the case.
Re:What will it really take? Apps Apps Apps (Score:3, Insightful)
You do realise that Android comes with a 'market' application built in, that provides a wide selection of free and to-buy applications that can be downloaded to the device?
Oh, and that you don't have to use a PC (Windows, Mac or otherwise) to do this, or to update the OS, or to find and install applications that aren't on the market?
And that nobody prevents applications appearing in the market because they may impact on the profitability of the device manufacturer?
Apple has the apps at the moment, but it's a transitory advantage at best.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:3, Insightful)
Man, that Razr V3 I got for free lasted me 3 years of rough handling, dropping in toilets, skipping across parking lots, the whole nine yards. It made great calls, and I could let it go a week without a charge and still make a call. Finally, the battery started only lasting a few hours, then a few minutes, but this is after three years of the worst possible treatment. And it still looked pretty good. I got the black finish and it was surprisingly sturdy.
I wasn't thrilled about the way it looked when I first got it, but it wasn't horrible. I shed a tear when I finally had to replace it. In fact, if the batteries for the Razr weren't a fortune, I'd still be carrying it. Finally, it was cheaper to get a new phone than a new battery. Much cheaper in fact, except for the fact that I had to sign up for another 2 year tour of duty working for the AT&T Death Star.
At least I didn't get an iPhone and have to sign up for a 2 year tour plus take an ass pounding on prica and the cadillac "data plan", and have everybody look at me like I'm a douche whenever I make a call.
Re:Many factors of success (Score:3, Insightful)
iPhone is ridiculously popular. I don't care to go into why it is popular, but I will say I don't fully understand it because I tend to measure things by a different set of metrics than non-nerds.
When the iPhone was first announced, the standard of UI design and usability on phones was completely abysmal. I'd just got a Windows Mobile phone, and while it out-featured the iPhone, half of those features were just plain unusable. It had a slide-out keyboard, a scroll wheel, a joypad, a touchscreen, on-screen keypad etc. In fact, it had so many buttons on every available surface that it was virtually impossible to pick it up without accidentally pressing something. To use it efficiently, you had to learn endless permutations of the various input modes and button functions. Since the iPhone, the other manufacturers have been playing catch-up (e.g. HTC have produced replacement UIs for WM, while the iPhone influence on Android and Palm is obvious).
Apple's main strengths are attention to detail, a flair for minimalist design and a resistance to creeping featurism. They are quite prepared to risk leaving out features and focus on making sure the features they do have are usable and consistent. One non-obvious advantage is that by having a touch screen and only a touch screen, they ensure that all applications have to be designed to work well with a touch screen.
To be clear, the primary weakness of the iPhone is its exclusivity to AT&T. It limits its growth potential and its flexibility.
...except that it doesn't seem to be stopping Apple from shifting iPhones, they were able to offer carrier-dependent features like visual voicemail and they've got a sweet deal with AT&T with who-knows-what clauses to ensure that AT&T promote iPhone. The exclusivity won't last forever - and if they time it right they'll do it just as the AT&T customer base is getting saturated.
Another difference between Apple and Microsoft is that Apple seem to be happy (or resigned) to a healthy slice of the market rather than total domination. Hence they're pretty much focusing on the consumer market, rather than making a determined assault on MS and Blackberry in the corporate market.
Customer Satisfaction is best defense for iPhone (Score:2, Insightful)
The market is still not fully mature with 40% of Americans owning Smartphones but over the next year or two there will be many more people replacing their current smart phones than entering the smart phone market. Those unsatisfied with their current offering are the ones most likely to move to something new. Therefore, it seems the Android is much more likely to kill off market share from everyone except iPhone. Since most smartphone manufacturers need to use someone else's software (I mean the # of manufacturers since they only have 23% market share between them), I suspect this means Window Mobile.
This is of course a US View and the market is much more open in most of the World. The key to maintaining market share is customer satisfaction. How many sidekicks would be sold now even if T-Mobile had them up for sale?
Source of data [investorplace.com]
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:3, Insightful)
+1 I'm with you there. I'm still using my Razr V3 after at least one complete dunking (while off, thank goodness) and it's still going strong.
I haven't found batteries overly expensive though... In 3 years though, I've only replaced it once.
That said, I'm still seriously considering a Droid.
Re:One problem killing the iPhone... (Score:2, Insightful)
I would argue that one weakness is that Apple is the only maker of the iPhone and thus you are stuck with their hardware if you like it or not. With Android you have choice of hardware. I like hardware keyboards myself, so I can buy a phone that has one, like the HTC Dream, or Motorola Droid. For people that like software keyboards, you can get the HTC Dream or Hero for example. I can guarantee that Apple will never release a version of the iPhone with a hardware keyboard.
Re:One problem killing the iPhone... (Score:1, Insightful)
One problem killing the iPhone, is that most of the iPhone's weaknesses are one policy change away from disappearing.
Enough people want background apps? Well there they are. Enough people want customizable lock screens? Alright, that's easy enough. Enough people want shared file storage? There, done. Enough people want post-hoc approval of apps, like Android? No problem, it'll save Apple time and money to boot. Enough people want unsigned apps distributed outside the app store? Ok, here you go. Enough people want Flash, or other browser plugins? Fine, Adobe has been clamoring to put Flash on iPhone since it's inception. Enough people want root access? Fine, administration is their problem.
Apple keeps those measures of control because they help to protect their platform's image from incompetent or unscrupulous coders, and their negative impact on most users is relatively minor. If that balance ever shifts, either due to more competent coders (supposedly Flash 10.1 is heavily optimized) or more demanding users (with friends whose phones do some or all of the above), the rules can change in an instant.
When someone dumps tens of thousands of dollars into app development only to be told "Nope, sorry!" that developer packs up and never comes back. I can just imagine that conversation: "Oh, you've changed your policy? Umm.. yeah, fuck you." Sorry, but lost mindshare and an extremely poor image among developers cannot 'change in an instant'. They've fucked up. It's already over. Android will win.
Re:Horrible Article (Score:1, Insightful)
And Android (not just Droid, or Verizon, but Android) is doing that. Right now the iPhone is tied into AT&T, if you are on T-Mobile, Sprint or Verizon you can't use the iPhone without some difficulty. Android will eventually be available no matter which phone company you prefer. Then there is the variety of hardware. Someone who doesn't like using a touchscreen for typing won't like the iPhone, yet the G1, Droid and other Android phones have physical keyboards and if you prefer an all touchscreen phone the Magic and Hero phones have that.
Correction: if you are on T-Mobile, you can't use the iPhone without some difficulty. If you're on Sprint or Verizon, you can't use the iPhone at all. They both have CDMA networks, while the iPhone only works on AT&T's and T-Mobile's (and the rest of the world's) GSM networks. It uses a different radio on different frequencies.
Re:What does "iPhone killer" even mean? (Score:3, Insightful)
That's the same thing they said about Plays4Sure.
No it isn't. Plays4Sure was a proprietary Microsoft format for Windows Media DRM. The PC is effectively an open standard that can be implemented by anyone. Android is effectively an open standard that can be implemented by anyone. The analogy of Android to the PC world is much more apt than the analogy to a Windows Media DRM scheme.
Re:One problem killing the iPhone... (Score:3, Insightful)
All of these are addressed by jailbreaking an iPhone, and yet Apple has been doing it's damnedest to shut down jailbreaking. Even my local AT&T store's techs will show you how to jailbreak a phone, because they know there's a huge market demand for it, and it helps them sell more phones.