War Brewing on the Inexpensive Laptop Front

The Christian Science Monitor has an interesting look at the war brewing on the inexpensive laptop front. With everything from the Eee PC to the OLPC, the trend in slimming and trimming seems to be continuing. "The market segment is so new it doesn't have a name yet or even an agreed-upon set of specifications. Intel, the chipmaker, calls the category "netbooks," recognizing that much of what people do on their laptops involves going on the Net. The new machines are also being called ultra-low-cost PCs, mininotebooks, or even mobile Internet gadgets. In appearance, they have the familiar clamshell design, but they're smaller, with seven- to 10-inch screens. They offer full keyboards (albeit with smaller keys) and weigh less than three pounds. Perhaps most important, the majority cost less than $500 - some as little as $299. Intel says it expects more than 50 million of these netbooks to be sold by 2011. It's introduced a tiny, low-power processor to run them called Atom, which puts 47 million transistors on a chip about the size of a penny."

It makes sense

[loose electron]

These devices serve a need - web surf, email, document edit, spreadsheets. If you exclude gamers, thats 80% of the market for a laptop. Personally, lugging a big heavy laptop is a no-go for a lot of us.

Blast from the past! Handheld PC - H/PC - Palmtop

[Bananatree3]

What about Palmtops, or H/PC? [wikipedia.org]

Remember the NEC Mobile Pro, or the HP Jornada? Practically the same formfactor, reborn.

Limit is in the I/O

[elh_inny]

To me that the natural directions - chips are getting smaller, consume less power, so getting ultra-portable gets more affordable.

Now the limiting factor in usability of those devices seem to be not the processing power, but human interaction.

Both the keyboard and the screen are inevitably small, which makes typing and reading a challenge.
Some say that the future is in portable projectors and virtual keyboards, but that doesn't seem to be the ultimate solution - you need two flat surfaces and some headroom for those, which seems not to be the case for instance in an airplane.

I think challenges like efficient voice commands, or even brain waves (aka NIA) are the solution for input.

For the output again a direct interface to the nerves or to the eye, or else, there will still be need for full sized peripherals, so it won't matter how small can the computers themselves get.

Full laptop is better

[CastrTroy]

I personally find a full-sized fully-functional laptop much better. You can get them around $500 right now, and most of them will browse the Internet and write up simple office documents quite well. The mini-laptops are nice as a third computer (desktop, laptop, mini-laptop), but like the SMART car, are only useful to those who can afford to have the third one as a luxury.

Is running Linux really a problem?

[91degrees]

From the article, "Many run on an operating system called Linux, favored by the technorati but little known among most computer users."

Is this really a problem? I think that most of the people who don't know Linux aren't really aware of what Windows is either. They'll probably call any windowing system "Windows". As long as there are pictures to click on and it opens windows, it will be of little or no concern.

are you kidding?

[nguy]

Have you looked at PalmOS or Windows Mobile? They suck as operating systems. PalmOS isn't even multitasking. Windows Mobile has numerous restrictions relative to desktop Windows. Furthermore, no, they don't offer "every type of application". Many applications for those systems are designed for tiny screens and don't scale up. Also, having two different kinds of apps on the mobile and desktop system is a major headache. If that kind of stripped down OS and application appeals to you, get a keyboard for your phone.

Fortunately, it's not an either/or choice: Linux actually scales really nicely from mobile to desktop devices.

Re:Full laptop is better

[Hatta]

If you have a desktop, and a mini-laptop, why do you need a full sized laptop?

Re:It makes sense

[CastrTroy]

I have a $500 full size laptop, and I don't find it hard to carry around by any means. It's has a 14.1 inch screen and is pretty light and pretty thin. It weighs just over 5 lbs, battery included. Comparing it to the eee PC, it's quite a bit bigger, but neither one can just be shoved in your pocket as you leave the house. Both of them require some kind of backpack or shoulder bag to bring with you. So as far as I see it, the ultraportables, don't really offer much in terms of portability, because you can' just put them in your pocket, and a standard laptop lets you get your work done much easier.

OLPC?

[Anonymous Coward]

Why do the OLPC and Classmate keep getting included in these articles?

Don't get me wrong, I have an OLPC, I love it... but the OLPC was only available for individual consumers for a month, is no longer, has no plans on being available to us again, and was never designed for us in the first place, but instead designed to be available to governments and to be operated by children. The Classmate is in the same boat as well. Which naturally puts these in a class completely separate (not arguing better or worse, just separate) from the rest of these 'netbooks' referred to, certainly completely different than the EEEpc.

In short, they has no place being compared to the new wave of sub-mini-net-whatever-books.

So not to repeat, but why does everyone insist on including them?

Re:Palm or PocketPC

[fygment]

Who are 'they' and 'them' and why are you assuming you know what they need? Seems like ASUS Eee's success suggests that it nailed what 'they' and 'them' need.

Re:Full laptop is better

[CastrTroy]

Because if you actually want to get any real work done while away from home, a laptop works a lot better. An ultraportable is good for some web surfing, or some simple document editing. Maybe sending a few emails. But if you have to do any coding, edit some images (larger than the screen resolution), or work on large spreadsheets, then the tiny screen and cramped keyboard could prove to be quite limiting.

OLPC Redux

[speroni]

The OLPC looked like an awesome product when it started. I was designed for use in the middle of no where for children in under developed nations. There was a buy one - give one program going on but that got shut down for some reason.

Lately Negroponte decided it should go with windows instead of the original open source OS, which prompted Bender to resign. And there is a general sense that they have sold out.

For a while it looked promising, I wanted to pick one up. Thought it would be great for camping. Get some PDF books and read it on the go in the open sunlight with a water resistant clam shell and a hand crank power supply. This seemed much better than a Kindle to me.

There was even a lot of DIY home brew hacks going on at first. People using it along with Arduino for some neat applications.

Alas... why must everyone sell out.

Re:Why so expensive?

[drsmithy]

Why are these machines so expensive?

Because price only scales up with features, not down.

Re:Is running Linux really a problem?

[sayfawa]

It didn't sound to me like the article was making it out to be a problem. It didn't say it was a bad thing that these ultra-portables run Linux. It just simply stated that most people haven't heard of Linux. In addition, it complimented Linux by saying that smart people like it. That's almost as good as saying "Try Linux, you'll like it unless you're stupid".

Re:It makes sense

[Blahbooboo3]

I have a $500 full size laptop, and I don't find it hard to carry around by any means. It's has a 14.1 inch screen and is pretty light and pretty thin. It weighs just over 5 lbs, battery included. Comparing it to the eee PC, it's quite a bit bigger, but neither one can just be shoved in your pocket as you leave the house. Both of them require some kind of backpack or shoulder bag to bring with you. So as far as I see it, the ultra portables, don't really offer much in terms of portability, because you can' just put them in your pocket, and a standard laptop lets you get your work done much easier.

Have you ever carried for business travel a 3lb or less laptop? When you feel what a big difference it is when you are lugging it on your shoulder for hours versus the 5+ lbs model then you realize it IS a big difference.

Oh, so you say pack it in your carry on? Yep, have done that too. Trust me you can feel the weight difference (part of it is the weight distribution of the larger laptops) when you're climbing stairs or up escalators or lifting it to the overheard space on the place .... etc etc etc

And it is not like I am a small out of shape guy. Any weight held or carried for a period of time gets heavy.

I love my 2.8 lb thinkpad. I would NEVER go back to the former Compaq 5-6lbs model EVER for my usage on the road.

Re:Limit is in the I/O

[coaxial]

Voice commands will never be a primary interaction method. Why? It's just too hard to speak. Think about it. When you speak, you can literally think of nothing beyond the next word you're going to say. Under fMRI scans, the brain lights up when given even the most basic spoken interaction tasks. Conversely, when someone is interacting with the world in a nonverbal way, the brain is less active, thus allowing multiple tasks (e.g. thinking about something else) to take place.

Also, lets just look at the efficiency of interacting through voice. It's horribly inefficient. Just compare how long it took you to compose (create and revise) your post by typing, versus how long it takes for you to do it with only verbal instructions. Voice is just too slow.

Low power is great, but I want a big screen

[paxundae]

I'm all for the possibilities of low power and low cost laptops, and with more and more processing being shifted to web servers (or the cloud, whatever that is), I think the time is now.

My problem is that I want a full sized screen. Checking email and going through pdf's, doc's, and spreadsheets, I find I do a lot better with a big screen (or two) than even a normal laptop screen.

Do we think this is going to be taken care of by having docking stations all over the place, or will I need to wait for roll-out, flexible screens?

I don't understand this

[melted]

Some of the "inexpensive" laptops are $600! For a bit over that amount you can get a full blown laptop with larger screen and hard drive, higher resolution and more comfortable keyboard. What am I missing here?

Re:Only one loser.

[jmorris42]

> Except every one of these machines is capable of running Windows...

Yes.... for now. It should be obvious by now that OLPC insisted on an x86 compatible machine, even though it raised the cost and lowered battery life, because they realized doing a deal with Microsoft would eventually be a requirement for political reasons. Same with Asus and the eeepc, plus they were building it in a joint venture with Intel.

Yes, any $250+ machine will probably just wave the Linux flag as a bargining tool to get really good prices (and keep XP available, etc) on Windows.

But none of that is interesting longterm. I'm waiting for the less than $200 pricepoint to open up. Moore's Law says it will get here soon enough. Even better is when somebody builds one based on an ARM all in one solution that won't be able to run Windows regardless how much incentive or political pressure Microsoft brings to bear.

It should be obvious though that there exists a pricepoint that Microsoft can't compete at without risking canibalizing their existing monopoly. That market niche will be the wedge that will eventually lever em out of market dominance.

Re:Palm or PocketPC

[Just Some Guy]

I bet you can get every TYPE of application they need on one of those. So it wont run MS office or possibly even open office. But do they need much more than a notepad with spellcheck?

I have an Eee PC for work. It has GCC, Python, Emacs, and the PostgreSQL client programs installed. You say "notepad with spellcheck". I say "tiny development system that lets me telecommute from my backyard on sunny days".

For me (and apparently millions of others), the Eee PC is the sweet spot for portable computing. It's small enough that I don't think twice about dragging it along wherever I'm going, and yet big enough that I'm not giving up anything. No "portable OS" will ever match the flexibility it offers.

Re:UMPCs

[tchuladdiass]

UMPCs are a bit smaller (similar size or slightly bigger than a Sharp Zaurus SL-C3100), but have a more powerful processor, more ram, and a much shorter battery life than these new devices. Oh, and they also run about $2000.00 or so.
These netbooks are a hybrid of the laptop and UMPC concept -- keep shrinking the laptop until the point that the price would start going up, then cut back the processing power & memory until it is the minimum to run their target apps (web browser, email, productivity apps).

What a laptop that is portable?

[raymansean]

I think I remember them, they were called notebook computers. I am a firm believer that if you can afford to have both a desktop and a laptop then the laptop should be about the size of a 100 pg spiral notebook. I do not carry all my engineering books with me when I travel, why carry all my files with me when I travel. Take what you believe you need to perform your business and if you find that a certain file would be good for the clients to have then send it to them via email when you get home.

Not just the laptop front

[Kjella]

There's a similar offering for the desktop front, the "Nettop". Think really cheap, small fanless box you hook up with full size keyboard, mouse and screen. Intel is really throwing a volley at AMDs margins if they can ship these in volume on time.

Re:Netbook?

[CdBee]

agred - I have usd an iPod touch and it's well adapted for the uses you state, but bear in mind that the expansible firefox browser on an EEE PC is much more suited for web apps and the more desktop-like OS makes for easier porting of favourite applications (fewer developer restrictions too)

Re:UMPCs

[DECS]

UMPC is Microsoft's new name for its old tablet idea. It does not encompass mini Linux laptops like the EEE PC, ultra cheap Linux systems like the XO, WiFi handheld mobiles like the iPhone, very thin but expensive laptops like the MacBook Air, or any other products that might be ultra mobile but not from Microsoft.

Last year, UMPC units didn't sell a million units. That's why nobody is in any hurry to call their product a "UMPC." That, and its a stupid name that almost appears to be designed to prevent sales.

CES: Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas [roughlydrafted.com]

Re:OLPC Redux

[jcenters]

You'd think that since they're selling out, they'd start selling them to the general population. They've put together a nice piece of hardware, but none of their operating decisions make sense.

Re:I don't understand this

[ucblockhead]

That some people don't want a full blown laptop with a larger screen and hard drive.

I'm constantly amazed at the difficulty some people have comprehending that not everyone wants exactly the machine they do.

Re:More interested in the education than the net

[Corporate Troll]

Hmmmm.... I learned programming on a 640x480 screen. I don't know what you're trying to say, but a programmable machine is a programmable machine. Let it be a Atari Portfolio, a Toshiba CT120 or a Core 8 Quad Flux.

My ideal Eee PC ...

[CustomDesigned]

would have the screen from the OLPC. I have an OLPC, and I love it. The keyboard, obviously, is too small (kid sized by design), and the processor could be faster for use where power is more plentiful - i.e. the Eee PC is nearly ideal, except the screen seems cramped after using the OLPC. Also, the reflective mode for use in daylight is very nice.

Re:Only one loser.

[erikina]

Porting windows isn't the issue. The selling point of windows is the apps. You switch from x86 to ARM and suddenly linux now has a very distinct advantage.

Re:OLPC Redux

[speroni]

Correct me if I am wrong, but the original OLPC mission statement had nothing to do with making money or competing in a market. It relied upon making a quality product, and a NOT FOR PROFIT business model.

If you have an electric lamp, you aren't the target audience. However I feel its important for experienced programmers "hackers" to have access to the open source OS and the associated hardware to do what they will with it. Thats why I thought the buy one give one program was great. This whole project should be a mirror of linux as in the people who care can do so much more than the people who want to make a greasy buck.

A working product delivered to the kids who need it is ideally the goal, I have zero argument there. I just worry that Windows doesn't have the needy in mind as much as their stock holders in mind. (just to seem like good guys if nothing else) What's the loss if the ClassmatePC or the EEE PC get a larger market share in the US and Western Europe, but some truly altruistic people get the OLPCs to the kids who need them in third world countries.

Sure, as you point out there may be some short comings in this OS. It could use some improvements, however I believe these improvements would be more forth coming if the problem was given to the OS community rather than M$.

I thought one of the great things about the OLPC OS was the innate ability to teach programming languages such as Python. I fear that a movement to a proprietary OS will cripple this effort.

If Microsoft as a corporation decides to be altruistic this once, I'll eat my hat. In the mean time, I am going to go ahead and suggest that the fewer third world children who have to come in contact with Microsuck, the better.

The term "Sell Out" does apply. If the CEO (Negroponte) does something that causes the head of Head of Software (Bender) to leave over a software matter... I am forced to believe the head of software.

Who has ever believed a manager over an IT person when it comes to tech?

Re:It makes sense

[instarx]

I'd like to suggest that you talk to a doctor. No grown adult should consider a 5 lb, 10"x16" chunk of plastic either "big" or "heavy", and it shouldn't require "lugging"

Clearly you don't do much traveling through airports or even from the rental car counter to the car park "lugging" bags and computers. Sure 5 lbs is no big deal when all you have to do is carry the PC from a car to the coffee bar by itself, but when you ADD 5 lbs to your load and then carry all that from gate to gate, or parking to terminal, or baggage pick-up to the taxi stand it can be a major backache.