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Dvorak Says gPhone is Doomed 454

drewmoney writes "Speaking with his usual frustrated crankiness John Dvorak rants his way through an article explaining why the gPhone will never work. 'First of all, it wants to put Google search on a phone. It wants to do this because it is obvious to the folks at Google that people need to do Web searches from their phone, so they can, uh, get directions to the restaurant? Of course, they can simply use the phone itself to call the restaurant and ask! I've actually used various phones with Web capability. They never work right. They take forever to navigate. It's hard to read the screens ... I also hope that people note the fact that the public has not been flocking to smartphones of any sort.' "
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Dvorak Says gPhone is Doomed

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  • by teknopurge ( 199509 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:44PM (#21297293) Homepage
    Google has possessed this 'aura' of innovation for a long time - one of the reasons its stock price is so high. I don't see this move as innovation at all: it's more capitulation.

    Stop trying to rehash the old and make something new.
  • gPhone != Itanium (Score:5, Insightful)

    by downix ( 84795 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:44PM (#21297301) Homepage
    His first arguement is that the gPhone is like Itanium, with wide industry support. Well, that depends on a few things:

    1) will it arrive years late?
    2) will it perform as promised or be lackluster?
    3) will it shoot google's existing product lineup in the foot?

    I don't think these three will occur.
  • Dvorak is a retard (Score:4, Insightful)

    by sag_ich_nicht ( 756868 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:44PM (#21297305)
    Internet navigation works perfectly fine on my Nokia N73ME, is easy and readability is good. I use it all the time for directions, because spoken instructions aren't the same as having a damn map on your screen. Before my Mobile Opera Trial run out, it was even easier.
  • ugh (Score:5, Insightful)

    by trybywrench ( 584843 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:46PM (#21297351)
    The iphone's screen isn't hard to read. just because Google wants to make a phone doesn't mean it has to be the same crap we have right now. In fact, I'd say Google has the innovation potential to make a really great phone the likes we haven't seen yet.
  • by FrankSchwab ( 675585 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:46PM (#21297357) Journal
    Stop pissing all over someone else's attempt to build something, and go make something new yourself.
    Damned armchair inventors, entrepreneurs, and capitalists.
    hrumph.
  • Success?!?! (Score:3, Insightful)

    by JBMcB ( 73720 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:49PM (#21297403)
    Has Dvorak ever predicted that *anything* would be a success?
  • He makes no sense (Score:4, Insightful)

    by TheMeuge ( 645043 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:49PM (#21297407)
    Ever since I got my Samsung i607 (Blackjack), I've used Google search through the internet maybe 2-3 times per day minimum. With 3G, or even EDGE, it's reasonably fast... and very helpful in a lot of various circumstances.

    If Google can streamline the internet experience, as well as create a Linux-based platform where I could sync my PIM functions with Google services and Thunderbird/Evolution via the internet, with little difficulty, I'd jump on it in a second, and so would thousands of other people. Tens of thousands more would follow because they'd want the latest gadget.
  • Rly (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ackthpt ( 218170 ) * on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:49PM (#21297415) Homepage Journal

    So it's a guaranteed success then?

    So John says nobody is flocking to smart-phones, ergo Google is d00med to failure. Gosh. Maybe it's because the other smartphones didn't have something Google's will. I seem to recall many phones which played music and did a variety of other tasks not going anywhere until Apple launched the iPhone.

  • by zappepcs ( 820751 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:50PM (#21297421) Journal
    smack this guy in the head with a heavy blunt object and get it over with already. There is a good reason that people don't flock to smart phones in their droves. The north american cellular market is so manipulated that it really can't be called a market. When you can get a GSM smartphone that you can transfer from one carrier to the next as you see fit, it will be worth spending 300+ dollars on a PDA. So long as you can get a 0$ phone for the same contract (more or less) there is no perceived value in getting a smart phone. What a putz.

    If the gPhone fails, it will be for the same reason that any phone fails, CARRIERS in North America SUCK. I personally use the SideKick, and for several years now have yet to see anyone say that it is a waste, and not cool. Many of my friends have smart phones and use the PDA functions regularly. When carriers start marketing them to the average joe (see the new sidekick) it will begin to be more common than it already is. There will always be people that buy cheap, utilitarian devices only. See the throw away cameras in the grocery store still? Why? That is how people spend money.

    Yes, there is a reason for search other than getting directions... I can disply a MAP also. I have used it to look up exotic drink mixes when a bartender did not know the recipe (no comments on that one) as well as many other uses that don't even touch on the value of a qwerty keyboard when replying to an SMS or email.

    Sorry to Dvorak fans, but this guy is a putz.
  • by griffjon ( 14945 ) <.GriffJon. .at. .gmail.com.> on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:52PM (#21297475) Homepage Journal
    ...well, do *you* have the number? I don't. Oh man, I wish we could google it and then call them! [1]

    oh, right.

    Thanks Dvorak, you missed the point.

    [1] If you haven't tried 1-800-GOOG-411 ; it's pretty awesome for getting said phone numbers, and automatically connecting you if you like. Tied in to a phone with Google Maps and GPS/e911? Beauty and ease. My only concern is how Google will monetize the cell phone space; even sponsored text ads would be seriously annoying being read to you by a machine voice, slowly, on Goog411, and would take up even more valuable screenestate on a phone.
  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:53PM (#21297481) Journal
    I mean, this is after all slashdot. Forget all the +5 interesting/informative/insightful mods. Just purely looking at flamebaits and trolls, I don't see any reason to read John Dvorak.

    We can do better flamebaits and trolls than John. And we have a better handle on tech issues. I am sure even the most flamebait/troll modded asinine juvenile here has better grasp of tech issues than John. Given the pagerank of /. the flames here have wider readership than his articles. So why bother reading what he is blabbering about?

  • by east coast ( 590680 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:53PM (#21297487)
    From the blurb: "Speaking with his usual frustrated crankiness John Dvorak rants..."

    Is "frustrated crankiness" the new corporate-speak for "stupid jackass ways"?
  • Re:Is it just me.. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by RingDev ( 879105 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:53PM (#21297489) Homepage Journal
    It's kinda like the old philosophical 'tree falling in a forest' question...

    If Dvorak posts in a news group, does anyone really care?

    -Rick
  • Text messaging (Score:3, Insightful)

    by MojoRilla ( 591502 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:58PM (#21297575)
    Text messaging [wikipedia.org] costs the average user $.10 per message, and generates $50 billion in revenue for the phone companies. This is for a service that takes virtually no network or system resources to support, and should be free.

    If Google can create an open platform and include great services like GMail, the SMS scam will die. Google stands to become very successful, just from this.
  • by npsimons ( 32752 ) * on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:58PM (#21297581) Homepage Journal

    . . . and by "finest" I mean "stupidity as usual".

    First of all, it wants to put Google search on a phone.

    Duh. What did he think Google would put on it? Microsoft's search engine?

    It wants to do this because it is obvious to the folks at Google that people need to do Web searches from their phone, so they can, uh, get directions to the restaurant? Of course, they can simply use the phone itself to call the restaurant and ask!

    Ok smartass, what's the phone number of the restaurant? Oh, you mean you have to search [google.com] for it? Or better yet, just get directions yourself [google.com].

    I've actually used various phones with Web capability. They never work right.

    Says you. My browser (Blazer on Treo) seems to work adequately. So does the browser on my friend's Symbian phone. If you believe some iPhone user's, Safari is the second coming.

    They take forever to navigate. It's hard to read the screens

    What smartphones have you actually used, mister I write about technology so I should probably try out a wide variety before writing about it.

    ... I also hope that people note the fact that the public has not been flocking to smartphones of any sort.

    Which is why of course we rarely see people with Blackberries, Treo's or any of a dozen other smartphones. The iPhone alone has made such a quick entrance into popular culture that I've already seen it on two TV shows (Mythbusters and The Colbert Report).


  • Re:iPhone? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Fnkmaster ( 89084 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @01:59PM (#21297603)
    His rant is completely out of date and reflects usability issues with previous generation smartphones. I Google for addresses of restaurants and other stores on my iPhone several times a week. And if I'm in an unfamiliar neighborhood, pull up directions with Google Maps. I very rarely was able to do all of that on my old Treo, since web browsing was such an atrociously clunky experience, but Apple got that part right.

    Fortunately for Google, Apple got a lot of other shit terribly wrong with the iPhone (lack of openness, lack of SDK, getting deeply in bed with carrier and offering no premium price unlocked phone, spending all of engineering's resources fighting unlockers rather than developing the features and applications people actually want for their phones). This is the only reason Google has such a big opportunity here.
  • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by semiotec ( 948062 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:01PM (#21297637)
    I don't bother to read Dvorak anymore, since I always feel dumber aftewards, so I have no idea how good are his predictions or if they are so bad they are guaranteed to be wrong (anti-prediction, in a sense).

    but his gripe about not able to read web content on phones is really just a problem of people not generating format for phone use. He should spend a few weeks or months in Japan and use their system.

  • by TBedsaul ( 95979 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:05PM (#21297715)
    I suggest "goob".

    It rhymes, sounds insulting and it can stand for "Grumpy, Obsolete Old Bastard".
  • by LaughingCoder ( 914424 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:12PM (#21297863)

    Damned armchair inventors, entrepreneurs, and capitalists.
    Why in the world would you lump "entrepeneurs [sic] and capitalists" with "armchair inventors"? Am I correct in assuming you view all 3 as evil or somehow undesirable? And you say this in defense of Google, who are the ultimate capitalists making untold billions on advertising? Let's be clear ... Google is not "innovating" here for the sake of "building something", they are looking for the next big advertising market and see cellphones as that opportunity. They are, in fact, behaving as entrepreneurs and capitalists.
  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:16PM (#21297939)
    Apple solves the lack of any official SDK in January and the earliest we can expect to see gPhone devices is the end of next year. You think Apple might also have a few other updates by that point? They've even said that lower power 3G chipsets will be around late next year (perhaps that's what Google is waiting for as well?). In the meantime if you are really interested, you can develop homebrew apps for the iPhone today if you like.

    Remember that carrier portability simply does not matter to that many people in the US, and abroad Apple will offer it (at least in France). If people were more used to it here it might matter, but all that happens is it delays some people switching for a year or two as contracts expire.
  • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Ngarrang ( 1023425 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:24PM (#21298093) Journal
    I am surprised, frankly, that anyone still reads Dvorak's drunken ramblings. He is like the Jerry Springer of the computer world.
  • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by sqrt(2) ( 786011 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:25PM (#21298127) Journal
    He gets paid to make ridiculous, outrageous and often times completely asinine claims based on speculation for the purpose of attracting viewers so ads can be sold. He does his job well. Also people are really good at remembering the hits and forgetting the misses, if he ever actually gets one right that's all you're going to hear about him, not the hundreds of things he's been wrong on.
  • by virgil_disgr4ce ( 909068 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:35PM (#21298321) Homepage
    Wow, way to completely misread his comment. He was disparaging "armchair inventors," "armchair entrepreneurs" and "armchair capitalists," referring by all three to the GP. Fix your parser!
  • Bigger picture (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Mr. Underbridge ( 666784 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:36PM (#21298347)

    See this within the totality of what Google's trying to do. Right now, the American cell market is locked down by the providers, such that most phones are tied to a contract. Americans can't just buy a new phone and swap their SIM cards particularly easily. And even then, it wouldn't get much since all the providers suck anyway.

    This situation hampers Google. It's hard for them to develop for the mobile environment on another company's system because the stuff's locked down. So if they're going to do it, they pretty much have to do it themselves. Add in the spectre of broadband companies demanding ransom not to throttle Google's traffic (absent net neutrality legislation), and Google is at the mercy of other companies who are between them and their users.

    So first, Google liberates the phone, and makes it an open platform, not locked down. Then Google buys a whole lot of 700MHz spectrum and builds a network that they can use, possibly for the phone but also new efforts. Probably wireless data, possibly a means of distributing other content as well. Also consider the portable data centers Google has been designing.

    One could begin to see how Google might be on the verge of doing something very big. Google already has the content and useful applications for exploring the content. Now they need to be able to find better ways of getting that content to their users. Developing a phone, wireless capability, and backbone capacity would allow them to completely cut out the middleman.

  • Re:Really? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by mikiN ( 75494 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:43PM (#21298493)

    He should spend a few weeks or months in Japan and use their system.
    Good point, but one also has to consider the fact that written Japanese, like most written languages that use ideographs, has a high information density (assuming high kanji to kana ratio) per unit of screen area, making it better in conveying information on a small screen.
  • Dvorak on Success (Score:3, Insightful)

    by ackthpt ( 218170 ) * on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:44PM (#21298507) Homepage Journal

    Has Dvorak ever predicted that *anything* would be a success?

    Himself.

    As long as someone is still reading/listening, he's doing it.

  • by catdevnull ( 531283 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:48PM (#21298617)
    Don't click the link to Dvorak's log--that is unless you WANT to make him more money for mouthing off. He gets paid to write flamebait to increase traffic the site.
  • by Andy Dodd ( 701 ) <atd7NO@SPAMcornell.edu> on Friday November 09, 2007 @02:53PM (#21298683) Homepage
    That is what Google has done (and succeeded wildly with) in a number of areas.

    Search? - Already done, Google did it better. (Although they were closer to the frontier on this one)
    Web-based email? - Done for years (including entries by Microsoft), then Google took the concept and tweaked it and refined it, now it's the leader in the market.
    Web-based mapping? - Mapquest used to dominate, there were a few other entries into the market, now Google Maps dominates.

    Admittedly in both the web-based email and web-based mapping markets, MS has shaped up their act a LOT, partly because Google has forced them to do so. As far as mobile local search, I actually prefer Windows Live Search Mobile to Google Maps Mobile on my AT&T Tilt. WLS Mobile *rocks*.

    I suspect the same will happen with Android. They'll take the already reasonably well established concept of the smartphone (Symbian, Palm, Windows Mobile), and do what they've done in every market - simply *do it better*.

    "It wants to do this because it is obvious to the folks at Google that people need to do Web searches from their phone, so they can, uh, get directions to the restaurant? Of course, they can simply use the phone itself to call the restaurant and ask! I've actually used various phones with Web capability."
    1) How can you call the restaurant if you don't know their number? (hint: get the number from the Web, or a specialized local search such as Google Maps Mobile or Windows Live Search Mobile.)
    2) What if you miss a turn? TomTom and Garmin mapping devices are selling like hotcakes for a reason... It's a lot easier to hit a few buttons on your GPS (or click "directions" in GMM or WLSM) than it is to write down and follow the restaurant's directions.
    3) How do you determine the restaurant's existence in the first place? You've just flown into town on a business trip, you feel like pizza. Where's the nearest pizza place??? GMM or WLSM will tell you that, and I bet whatever localized search capability Google puts into Android will do it even better.
    4) Dvorak needs to define "phones with Web capability" more precisely. Was he using a $20 Motorola C168i (it has a web browser, albeit an utterly awful and nearly useless one), a Windows Mobile device (Pocket IE is OK, Opera is much better), or an iPhone? Expect the Android experience to fall closer to the iPhone end of the spectrum.

    "That was the problem with the Danger and its successor, the Hiptop handset. They were clunky."
    Clunky or not, they're apparently selling well and a big attraction to T-Mobile. They definately haven't flopped, T-Mo just released not one but *two* new Sidekick variants.

    "People have had eons to program for the Windows smartphones and nothing has come of it."
    There seem to be plenty of applications for WM that I can download and/or buy. Yeah a lot of them are crap, but many are gems. See my above comments about GMM and WLSM - both kick ass. Now if only I could have WLSM's search capability combined with TomTom's user interface (TT's POI database and POI search capability sucks, but most other aspects of TT are amazing.)
  • Re:iPhone? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Andy Dodd ( 701 ) <atd7NO@SPAMcornell.edu> on Friday November 09, 2007 @03:01PM (#21298839) Homepage
    I have an AT&T Tilt, and I agree with you, except:

    While Android won't give you cool new features you can't already get in Windows Mobile, you will get those features with far more polish in the Google version.

    See, for example, Gmail vs. pre-Gmail-Hotmail. No real new major "features", just an unbelievable amount of user interface polish.
  • Re:Counterpoint (Score:3, Insightful)

    by billn ( 5184 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @03:21PM (#21299217) Homepage Journal
    People need to stop buying vendor-locked phones. My last phone was a Motorola E815, subsidized by Verizon, and I'll never buy a phone like that again. Need a ringtone? Gotta buy it. Engineering spec shows full bluetooth capability, but it's vendor locked to limit your choices to their pay services. I upgraded to a Treo 700wx *instead* of an Iphone, and I'm never going back to a vendor locked solution. Smartphones can be done right, you just need to break out of the rat maze they want you to stay in.
  • by AaronStJ ( 182845 ) <AaronStJ AT gmail DOT com> on Friday November 09, 2007 @03:27PM (#21299289) Homepage
    Dvorak, apart from being a moron, has clearly never even seen an iPhone (or, I assume, and of serveral other decent smart phones, but I have a iPhone, so it's what I know), let alone use one:

    >I've actually used various phones with Web capability. They never work right.
    The iPhone works perfectly.

    >They take forever to navigate.
    Navigation is incredibly intuitive. It's almost even fun.

    >It's hard to read the screens.
    The screen is large, high resolution, high contrast, and incredibly crisp and readable.

    >If there are a lot of images, the page may never load.
    The page always loads.

    >No matter what browser you use, there are issues.
    Safari on the iPhone works as well as Safari on a Mac.

    >In short, the experience sucks.
    The experience is awesome. I use my iPhone for the web more then I use it for a phone. Hell, I almost use it for the web more than I use my laptop.

    So right off, he's completely misunderstood the potential for smartphones, and obviously never used a good one. And Google is not staffed by moron's I'm fairly sure they can get this right, or at least not completely screw it up.

    In addition to completely misundestanding what's available and possible with an smartphone, he's obviously completely people, and what they want:
    %gt; o what is Google trying to do with a phone? First of all, it wants to put Google search on a phone. It wants to do this because it is obvious to the folks at Google that people need to do Web searches from their phone, so they can, uh, get directions to the restaurant? Of course, they can simply use the phone itself to call the restaurant and ask!

    Seriosuly? You want people to call 411 to get the restaurant's number, call teh restaurant, ask for direction from someone who doesn't really understand where you are, copy them down, hope they're right, and then call again when they get lost of the way? I use my iPhone for web-based directions all the time. In fact, it was one of the major selling points. II just click on map, seach for where I want to go, and hit directions. I instantly have directions in an easy to read list and accompanying map. If I miss a turn on the way, I can look at the map to figure out where I am. And I never have to have an awkward conversation with someone I don't know who doesn't know where I am or the best way to get to the restaurant from my house.

    Dvorak in a complete moron.

    >There are no Google fanboys. There are no Google addicts

    Seriosuly?

    >... Google is actually not a charismatic company ...

    Seriously??

    Blargh! My head is going to explode with how stupid this column is! Has Dvorak ever even been online? Or ever talked to a person? Or ever used any kind of technology ever? Ackkkk! The Mind boggles! He's made me overuse exclamation points he's so dumb!

  • Re:Bigger picture (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Grishnakh ( 216268 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @03:58PM (#21299769)
    I think Dvorak's right that the gPhone is doomed, but not for the reasons he states. You hit on it here, in that Americans can't just buy a new phone and swap SIM cardes, and that all the providers suck.

    I don't see how Google can "liberate" the phone in the American cellular market at all. Even if they make an open phone, most providers won't allow you to use it, and the networks are incompatible anyway. The only way Google can succeed is by going whole-hog at the outset, by becoming their own provider, or buying out one of the other providers. This would probably require too much capital, and is unlikely to succeed.

    Google could succeed if they simply abandoned the American market altogether with this phone plan, and just concentrated on foreign countries (i.e., the rest of the world where GSM is the standard and phones aren't locked in to providers). I think we Americans are just screwed on mobile phone technology for the next 50 years or so.
  • Re:Really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Brickwall ( 985910 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @04:25PM (#21300131)
    Totally agree with the "crappy little screen" comment. I have a Nokia phone that supposedly has web access, but the damn thing, while letting me put all kinds of pretty colours and ring tones on it, won't let me adjust the damn font size. I'm 51, and my eyesight is getting progressively worse, but Nokia seems to think that 8 point fonts - and white outline fonts on a cream background, for crissake - are going to be perfectly legible to me. Hint: they are not, and it's a pain in the ass to have to haul out my reading glasses every time I want to make a phone call. Surfing the web with it is just not on; too slow, too hard to read, too infuriating an experience.
  • Re:Bigger picture (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Sparr0 ( 451780 ) <sparr0@gmail.com> on Friday November 09, 2007 @04:47PM (#21300461) Homepage Journal

    Once you get a gPhone, you are stuck with Google as your provider.
    Say what? Why do you think I could not use a gPhone with AT&T, or T-Mobile, or Cellular South, or Verizon, or Sprint, or any other provider? Has Google announced some sort of lock-in that somehow did not become a /. story?
  • Re:Rly (Score:3, Insightful)

    by ncc74656 ( 45571 ) * <scott@alfter.us> on Friday November 09, 2007 @04:52PM (#21300529) Homepage Journal

    It's scary how much this:

    "First of all, it wants to put Google search on a phone. It wants to do this because it is obvious to the folks at Google that people need to do Web searches from their phone, so they can, uh, get directions to the restaurant? Of course, they can simply use the phone itself to call the restaurant and ask!"

    Sounds like the parody I did of Dvorak a while back...

    Besides, you're even less likely to know a restaurant's phone number than its location. If you're going to call them for directions, you're going to need their phone number first. How are you going to get their phone number?

    You're going to search for it, of course.

    If you're already firing up Google (or whatever) on your cellphone to look up the restaurant's phone number, you might as well get directions while you're in there. You'll have the directions where you can read them, without having to transcribe them from someone who may or may not be able to give directions worth a damn. You're also not wasting money on "directory assistance."

  • by sterno ( 16320 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @06:00PM (#21301545) Homepage
    I think the real problem Google faces is that they aren't planning to make an actual device but merely define a platform for other device makers. The problem you run into is that you end up having to cripple yourself to make it work for the least powerful, smallest device and thus make it suck ass on a more powerful bigger device. Windows Mobile 6 proves this in spades.

    The advantage Apple has with the iPhone is that they control the entire platform. They've got custom built hardware running a custom operating system with their custom software. It is all built from the ground up to work as an integrated phone, and thus it works pretty damn well. It also does a lot to mitigate some of the major form factor issues that make most smart phones a pain to use. But mostly it's good because it's all meant to work together.

  • by eclectic4 ( 665330 ) on Friday November 09, 2007 @08:48PM (#21303239)
    "The advantage Apple has with the *insert Apple product here* is that they control the entire platform. They've got custom built hardware running a custom operating system with their custom software. It is all built from the ground up to work as an integrated *insert Apple product here* , and thus it works pretty damn well. It also does a lot to mitigate some of the major form factor issues that make most *insert anyone elses competition here* a pain to use. But mostly it's good because it's all meant to work together.

    This has been Apple's way of making EVERYthing since its inception. It's their business model, always has been. The iPhones success in this area should be a shock to noone.

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