Laptops Outsell Desktops

wintermute1974 writes "According to a new report by Current Analysis, laptops have overtaken sales of desktops for the first time in computing, ever. Figures are for the U.S. market, but presumably this is part of a world-wide trend." From the article: "Notebook prices fell 17 percent during the past year while desktop prices dipped only 4 percent. Some of the features common in most notebooks are longer-lasting batteries, CD burners and wireless capability."

Well ..

[macaulay805]

Well, IMHO, this was bound to happen. With those good "desktop replacement" laptops, who wouldn't want to?

Re:This is in units sold

[ZephyrXero]

So they aren't counting the thousands of self built systems out there? Probably didn't count local sellers either... Once again statistics proven worthless.

They left out the killer feature

[El Cubano]

Some of the features common in most notebooks are longer-lasting batteries, CD burners and wireless capability.

Yeah. They left out the inability to easily upgrade components. In the last 10 years i have owned +/- 6 computers. One was a laptop that I purchased new. The others were all custom rigs that got upgraded expansion cards, peripherals, memory, etc. when needed. Thus they didn't show up as desktop sales. I am willing to bet that as building machines from components has gotten easier, lots more people have been doing it to get more bang for the buck.

Thing is, with a laptop, upgrading the monitor is impossible and upgrading pretty much anything else is a royal pain and/or too expensive. Thus, laptop users can't take advantage of individual components on the same scale as desktop owners.

longer battery life?

[dan2550]

my current laptop is a toshiba satelite a75 series. circa end of 2004 batery life: 2 hours on "long life" mode. my very first laptop was a toshiba t-1000 circa 1980-something(late 80's) battery life: hours and hours... how is that a longer life?

heat output

[DeusExMalex]

now if only they could make it so the damn things don't scorch whatever you sit them on. my lappy is so hot i can't leave it on my lap and i can feel the heat through the bottom of my desk. and the fans are loud enough that i can hear them from another room. give me a tower that i can play w/ any day.

popularity vs. durability

[Schlemphfer]

Back in the day, laptops cost more than $1000 more than comparable desktops. Now, you can get a pretty decent laptop for $700. So it's not surprising that as the price difference between desktops and laptops has eroded, so too has the market share of desktops.

The question that interests me is: are laptops becoming any more durable? One of my main reasons that I bought an eMac instead of an iBook is that the eMac is probably Apple's most durable computer. And I know that laptops tend to be much more prone to failure.

It wasn't so long ago that if you bought a laptop, you could pretty much count on some kind of major failure within three years. I'm wondering if any good research has been done to show whether laptops are closing the gap with desktops in terms of reliability. If they are, I'm pretty sure my next computer will be a laptop.

Re:5 More Years Until PDA's Outsell Laptops

[TheKidWho]

no, pdas are too small to be of any use, ive had plenty of them to know.

Re:This is in units sold

[Skippy_kangaroo]

I think you answer your own point - "the thousands of self built systems out there". It would have to be hundreds of thousands to make a dent in the statistics.

The plural of anecdote is not data - no matter how many friends you have.

Re:They left out the killer feature

[llamaluvr]

With all the external peripherals you can plug in with USB (2.0), this seems irrelevant in most cases. I used to stay away from computers with less then 3 free PCI slots, because I was always afraid I would fill them up and not have room for anything else, but now that I have a laptop, I haven't missed a beat in regards to adding the peripherals that I want.

Price or Wireless Revolution?

[Mulletproof]

But this is not just a "desktop replacement" trend. Sure, you can emulate nearly every function on a laptop that you could get in a desktop, but that was true back when too. Sure, the price has gone down, but what's really changed?

I don't think the wireless explosion is getting nearly enough credit here. Now your truly portable PC can take advantage of the most influential and pervasive phenomenon of the 21st century anywhere and everywhere. Coffee shops. Parks. The back yard. The laptops utility has been magnified 100 fold just by the wireless networking trend alone. It's so much more than a portable document holder now. You now have access to real time information anywhere, an unparalleled knowledge base at your fingertips on the go, keep in contact with people friends, family and partners instantly, etc etc etc. Wireless LAN? Standard equipment on nearly every machine now.

I have no doubt the price drop has helped, but the utility and popularity of the laptop has absolutely exploded because of the wireless revolution that is still evolving at this very moment.

Re:They left out the killer feature

[El Cubano]

It's called the right tool for the right job. Desktops allow you to customized and upgrade, laptops sacrifice that for portability. Get over yourself and go back to looking at porn on your super l33t custom rig with clear side panel and neon lighting.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. What I meant to get across was this:

• Case 1: Owner of desktop (custom or not) - wants new Athlon64 CPU. Orders CPU + mobo for $250 from NewEgg.
• Case 2: Owner of laptop - wants new Athlon64 CPU. Drops ~$2500 on a new HP laptop.

I am just trying to point out that the numbers are skewed since the first guy essentially got a "new" computer. I know that it is a bit different, but the old laptop will either get tossed or donated or relegated to something else. So in reality, it's like it is no longer there (in most cases).

Re:longer battery life?

[timeOday]

Did you factor battery life into your purchasing decision? There are many, many laptops these days around 4 hours. The really small Sonys are closer to 8, and unlike your 1980's model they have more than 64KB of RAM.

Re:This is in units sold

[fafalone]

Well, when you come up with a better way of scientifically detecting patterns in large volumes of information, and using that to make predications which come true at a signficant level (and how do you determine whats significant without statistics without resorting to "seems like", "looks like", or other non-scientific nonsense?), you be sure to let everyone know. If you really think statistics in general are worthless, you are beyond ignorant as to their underlying workings. Oh, and where's your "proof" that these particular statistics are worthless? Do you have access to information that self-built systems significantly contribute to overall desktop use? How did you determine its significance, using "worthless" statistics? Or is your proof just some random thoughts of a non-expert who has absolutely no clue what they're talking about?
I'd absolutely LOVE to see you PROVE that these statistics are worthless, and without statistics like significance tests, averages, etc... since those are so worthless. The only thing that pisses me off than bad statistical analyses is people like this troll who discount the entire field because of their ignorance.

Re:Laptops suck compared to...

[Anonymous Coward]

They are the lonely ones stuck off by a power supply in the airport, they are too poor to hide their dislike for human companionship and too cheap to have a beast of a computer at home.

Right, because the people at the airport without laptops are regular chatter-bugs with the total strangers who surround them, and not pretending to re-read the same month-old issue of Newsweek for the third time in a row while nursing a Long Island Iced Tea which cost them eight bucks at the airport bar.

Sorry, but you are full of shit.

The biggest problem with using a laptop in public is not loneliness. It's all the dumbass people who think your use of it is an invitation to talk about computer technology when you would much rather just be doing whatever it was you were using the laptop for in the first place.

(Which is why phase-cancelling headphones are every bit as essential as a laptop when traveling. First of all, it reduces ambient noise slightly, but more importantly, nothing says "fuck off and leave me alone" quite like a good pair of headphones and an LCD screen to bury yourself in.)

Re:Well ..

[Awptimus Prime]

Wow, there are "senior" level developers out there who really think all these things?

Most of the other replies have covered discrediting most things this guy said, but there is also the issue of upgrades. A typical laptop can take a range of processors and some come with miniPCI. If you buy a lower-end CPU for one, make sure the board in it can support higher speed chips and you are set.

There are also 7200 rpm drives for laptops.

Price? Yes, but if you are really a senior developer, you probably have some math skills. If you are able to set up shop anywhere when you get an idea or whatever, that is money made.

I have not seen any laptop in any store for several years that could only support 1024x768, except for the tiny systems, but almost all of those have had 16:9 displays for a while.

Re:longer battery life?

[MojoStan]

my current laptop is a toshiba satelite a75 series. circa end of 2004 batery life: 2 hours on "long life" mode. my very first laptop was a toshiba t-1000 circa 1980-something(late 80's) battery life: hours and hours... how is that a longer life?

You value battery life, but you bought a "mobile" Pentium 4 laptop [cnet.com] instead of a Pentium M [intel.com] or Celeron M [intel.com] laptop at the end of 2004? It's not like the power-saving features of Centrino haven't been publicized and hyped since March 2003 [anandtech.com].

Initially, Pentium M/Celeron M notebooks carried a notable price difference over Pentium 4/Celeron notebooks. But by the end of 2004, Pentium M technology had made its way all the way down to sub-$1000 notebooks (Celeron M). By that time, only "desktop replacements" (and older discontinued models) were using Pentium 4 CPUs. For the same price as that Toshiba Pentium 4-based notebook, I think you would have been much better off (with much longer battery life) with a Pentium M-based, or even Celeron M-based, notebook.