War Brewing on the Inexpensive Laptop Front

The Christian Science Monitor has an interesting look at the war brewing on the inexpensive laptop front. With everything from the Eee PC to the OLPC, the trend in slimming and trimming seems to be continuing. "The market segment is so new it doesn't have a name yet or even an agreed-upon set of specifications. Intel, the chipmaker, calls the category "netbooks," recognizing that much of what people do on their laptops involves going on the Net. The new machines are also being called ultra-low-cost PCs, mininotebooks, or even mobile Internet gadgets. In appearance, they have the familiar clamshell design, but they're smaller, with seven- to 10-inch screens. They offer full keyboards (albeit with smaller keys) and weigh less than three pounds. Perhaps most important, the majority cost less than $500 - some as little as $299. Intel says it expects more than 50 million of these netbooks to be sold by 2011. It's introduced a tiny, low-power processor to run them called Atom, which puts 47 million transistors on a chip about the size of a penny."

It makes sense

These devices serve a need - web surf, email, document edit, spreadsheets. If you exclude gamers, thats 80% of the market for a laptop. Personally, lugging a big heavy laptop is a no-go for a lot of us.

Re:It makes sense

As a Systems Administrator, I just need a device that can give me Internet and shell access. When I travel to customer sites or abroad, I absolutely loath lugging around a laptop. What Admin doesn't wish they had a small portable device for connecting to LOM's, Devices, or Serial Consoles? With a USB RS-232 Serial Adapter and WiFi, one can reasonably do it all with less.

My Eee PC with Slackware 12.1 is probably the best thing I could have hoped for. It just does everything a UNIX Admin needs and is very compact... now I have more room for my Frappacino's and O-Scope in my bag!

Gotta be thankful Technology is getting to the point where smaller is becoming affordable.

Re:It makes sense

Personally, lugging a big heavy laptop is a no-go for a lot of us.

If you're talking about modern laptops, I'd like to suggest that you talk to a doctor. No grown adult should consider a 5 lb, 10"x16" chunk of plastic either "big" or "heavy", and it shouldn't require "lugging".

Re:It makes sense

I have a $500 full size laptop, and I don't find it hard to carry around by any means. It's has a 14.1 inch screen and is pretty light and pretty thin. It weighs just over 5 lbs, battery included. Comparing it to the eee PC, it's quite a bit bigger, but neither one can just be shoved in your pocket as you leave the house. Both of them require some kind of backpack or shoulder bag to bring with you. So as far as I see it, the ultra portables, don't really offer much in terms of portability, because you can' just put them in your pocket, and a standard laptop lets you get your work done much easier.

Have you ever carried for business travel a 3lb or less laptop? When you feel what a big difference it is when you are lugging it on your shoulder for hours versus the 5+ lbs model then you realize it IS a big difference.

Oh, so you say pack it in your carry on? Yep, have done that too. Trust me you can feel the weight difference (part of it is the weight distribution of the larger laptops) when you're climbing stairs or up escalators or lifting it to the overheard space on the place .... etc etc etc

And it is not like I am a small out of shape guy. Any weight held or carried for a period of time gets heavy.

I love my 2.8 lb thinkpad. I would NEVER go back to the former Compaq 5-6lbs model EVER for my usage on the road.

Blast from the past! Handheld PC - H/PC - Palmtop

What about Palmtops, or H/PC? [wikipedia.org]

Remember the NEC Mobile Pro, or the HP Jornada? Practically the same formfactor, reborn.

Limit is in the I/O

To me that the natural directions - chips are getting smaller, consume less power, so getting ultra-portable gets more affordable.

Now the limiting factor in usability of those devices seem to be not the processing power, but human interaction.

Both the keyboard and the screen are inevitably small, which makes typing and reading a challenge.
Some say that the future is in portable projectors and virtual keyboards, but that doesn't seem to be the ultimate solution - you need two flat surfaces and some headroom for those, which seems not to be the case for instance in an airplane.

I think challenges like efficient voice commands, or even brain waves (aka NIA) are the solution for input.

For the output again a direct interface to the nerves or to the eye, or else, there will still be need for full sized peripherals, so it won't matter how small can the computers themselves get.

Is running Linux really a problem?

From the article, "Many run on an operating system called Linux, favored by the technorati but little known among most computer users."

Is this really a problem? I think that most of the people who don't know Linux aren't really aware of what Windows is either. They'll probably call any windowing system "Windows". As long as there are pictures to click on and it opens windows, it will be of little or no concern.

Re:Is running Linux really a problem?

It didn't sound to me like the article was making it out to be a problem. It didn't say it was a bad thing that these ultra-portables run Linux. It just simply stated that most people haven't heard of Linux. In addition, it complimented Linux by saying that smart people like it. That's almost as good as saying "Try Linux, you'll like it unless you're stupid".

Linux: Year of the... 'Netbook'?

It seems like when you're dealing with price points of one to several hundred dollars, this is a big deal for free software, specifically Linux. When you're talking about adding anywhere from 25% to 100% of the cost of the computer just for the operating system, it paints things in a different light. That, and you'd have to put an older (soon to be non-supported) version of Windows (XP) on the thing. I can't see these running Vista anytime in the near future.

Should be interesting to see how this impacts the OS playing field...

OLPC Redux

The OLPC looked like an awesome product when it started. I was designed for use in the middle of no where for children in under developed nations. There was a buy one - give one program going on but that got shut down for some reason.

Lately Negroponte decided it should go with windows instead of the original open source OS, which prompted Bender to resign. And there is a general sense that they have sold out.

For a while it looked promising, I wanted to pick one up. Thought it would be great for camping. Get some PDF books and read it on the go in the open sunlight with a water resistant clam shell and a hand crank power supply. This seemed much better than a Kindle to me.

There was even a lot of DIY home brew hacks going on at first. People using it along with Arduino for some neat applications.

Alas... why must everyone sell out.

UMPCs

I was under the impression the preferred nomenclature was "UMPC". That's what I always hear them referred to as.

Re:UMPCs

UMPCs are a bit smaller (similar size or slightly bigger than a Sharp Zaurus SL-C3100), but have a more powerful processor, more ram, and a much shorter battery life than these new devices. Oh, and they also run about $2000.00 or so.
These netbooks are a hybrid of the laptop and UMPC concept -- keep shrinking the laptop until the point that the price would start going up, then cut back the processing power & memory until it is the minimum to run their target apps (web browser, email, productivity apps).

Netbook?

Seriously, if all you need to do with a laptop is surf websites, then an iPod touch is better since it fits in your pocket when you're not using it. It also has email, Google Maps and YouTube. No it doesn't have a real mechanical keyboard, it doesn't have IM (yet), the screen isn't as big and the browser doesn't support Flash.

A small laptop may be more powerful and allow you to install other applications without limitations, however if you don't always carry it with you it doesn't really matter.

If it can't fit in my pocket, I'm not carrying it around "just in case".

are you kidding?

Have you looked at PalmOS or Windows Mobile? They suck as operating systems. PalmOS isn't even multitasking. Windows Mobile has numerous restrictions relative to desktop Windows. Furthermore, no, they don't offer "every type of application". Many applications for those systems are designed for tiny screens and don't scale up. Also, having two different kinds of apps on the mobile and desktop system is a major headache. If that kind of stripped down OS and application appeals to you, get a keyboard for your phone.

Fortunately, it's not an either/or choice: Linux actually scales really nicely from mobile to desktop devices.

Re:Palm or PocketPC

Who are 'they' and 'them' and why are you assuming you know what they need? Seems like ASUS Eee's success suggests that it nailed what 'they' and 'them' need.

Re:Palm or PocketPC

I bet you can get every TYPE of application they need on one of those. So it wont run MS office or possibly even open office. But do they need much more than a notepad with spellcheck?

I have an Eee PC for work. It has GCC, Python, Emacs, and the PostgreSQL client programs installed. You say "notepad with spellcheck". I say "tiny development system that lets me telecommute from my backyard on sunny days".

For me (and apparently millions of others), the Eee PC is the sweet spot for portable computing. It's small enough that I don't think twice about dragging it along wherever I'm going, and yet big enough that I'm not giving up anything. No "portable OS" will ever match the flexibility it offers.

Re:Full laptop is better

If you have a desktop, and a mini-laptop, why do you need a full sized laptop?

Re:intel created this market

Contravening my sig again, but how much did intel pay you to post this comment? Products have existed in this space since the 1980s from GRiD computer. The market for handheld computers was created by Palm Computing. Nokia brought out the first credible, modern webpad. Intel is an also-ran in this area.

Re:More interested in the education than the net

I love my Eee PC. It's great for note taking and web browsing. But it's not good for programming and would probably be a frustrating first computer.

If your goal is to get your brother interested in programming, don't make him use a tiny monitor and keyboard, get him a low-end desktop PC with a real keyboard and acceptable screen. If you're on a budget, you can pick up a used monitor for almost nothing and spend everything on the box.

Re:Licensing fees fail as price drops to $200.

I bought a $300 laptop with Vista... there's no saying MS can't be (or already aren't, as has been documented) flexible with their OEM pricing scheme to accommodate lower priced hardware (or loss leaders for that matter)

Re:Licensing fees fail as price drops to $200.

Umm I picked up one for my kids at Microcenter for $279 after a $100 rebate, they arent that hard to find. Its an Acer Aspire AS5315-2122, total garbage laptop but for kids its great...and it did have vista at least for an hour or so before I paved it.

Re:Only one loser.

> Except every one of these machines is capable of running Windows...

Yes.... for now. It should be obvious by now that OLPC insisted on an x86 compatible machine, even though it raised the cost and lowered battery life, because they realized doing a deal with Microsoft would eventually be a requirement for political reasons. Same with Asus and the eeepc, plus they were building it in a joint venture with Intel.

Yes, any $250+ machine will probably just wave the Linux flag as a bargining tool to get really good prices (and keep XP available, etc) on Windows.

But none of that is interesting longterm. I'm waiting for the less than $200 pricepoint to open up. Moore's Law says it will get here soon enough. Even better is when somebody builds one based on an ARM all in one solution that won't be able to run Windows regardless how much incentive or political pressure Microsoft brings to bear.

It should be obvious though that there exists a pricepoint that Microsoft can't compete at without risking canibalizing their existing monopoly. That market niche will be the wedge that will eventually lever em out of market dominance.

Re:XP Capable.

while I can see that some people will want XP on their eeepc (my ex boss for example is adamant that he wants it) I bought mine preloaded with linux before the XP ones were mentioned (although there are instructions in the book on how to go about installing XP on it) I thought I would probably put XP on it as I am an Microsoft guy and work in a Microsoft house and avoid Linux mainly because I am put off by the whinging fanbois all the time but I have yet to find something that it does not do quite comfortably with the xandros install that XP would provide. I use it for surfing the web (I am on it right now) and all those things where you want a device that boots in under 16 seconds (like flicking it on to check the bus timetable, using it as a streaming radio by my bedside and updating my twitter). I can see why people will want to buy the XP version but they should really buy the linux version (which has a bigger HD in the new generation 9in ones) and then decide later if they want to pop XP on it.

Re:Why so expensive?

For that matter, why is an XO $300?

The current production cost of an XO is ~188 USD [wikipedia.org]. This is how much they cost as part of the "Give one Get one" program (the other ~$200 was a charitable donation).

Why are these machines so expensive?

Just because you can get specs X for $650 doesn't mean you can get specs X/2 for $325. There are all kinds of reasons (size of market, supply and demand, scaling of technology, base costs, etc.)... but the end result is that for most metrics, the "metric per dollar" vs. "cost" graph is non-linear. There is a sweet spot of lowest dollar/performance, with fringe cases (ultra-cheap or ultra-performance) having a price premium.

In the case of these ultra-portables, a significant fraction of the cost also comes from the engineering and components required to make them so small and lightweight. You can of course get a clunky 200MHz laptop for real cheap (old model off eBay, for example), but it will not be as light or slick as the Eee PC or others.

The prices will probably keep dropping. But frankly I'm amazed at how cheap these ultra-portables already are: compare the performance, size, and price to what was available even 5 years ago and see how far we've come!

Re:I don't understand this

That some people don't want a full blown laptop with a larger screen and hard drive.

I'm constantly amazed at the difficulty some people have comprehending that not everyone wants exactly the machine they do.