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Netbooks Take a Bite Out of Windows Profits
Posted by
timothy
on Sat Nov 08, 2008 02:24 PM
from the ineffables-abound dept.
from the ineffables-abound dept.
twitter writes "Analysts at Bloomberg noticed the tumble in Microsoft's traditional software sales last quarter and blamed it on netbooks: 'The devices, which usually cost less than $500, are the fastest-growing segment of the personal-computer industry — a trend that's eating into Microsoft's revenue. Windows sales fell short of forecasts last quarter and the company cut growth projections for the year, citing the lower revenue it gets from netbooks. When makers of the computers do use Windows, they typically opt for older and cheaper versions of the software. Equipping Linux on a computer costs about $5, compared with $40 to $50 for XP and about $100 for Vista, according to estimates by Jenny Lai, a Taipei-based analyst at CLSA Ltd.' This is why MS declared war on the segment last year and palm top computers in previous years. While they may have successfully tamed the Asus EEE PC, they can't hold back everyone who wants to make a buck on cheap hardware and free software. Analysts have predicted the fall of MS's business model when computers break below $250/unit retail. We are there now, and it has shown in the bottom line."
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Hardware: Why Netbooks Will Soon Cost $99 221 comments
CWmike sends along a ComputerWorld piece which predicts that
"netbooks like the Asus Eee PC, the Dell Mini 9 and the HP 2133 Mini-Note will soon cost as little as $99. The catch? You'll need to commit to a two-year mobile broadband contract. The low cost will come courtesy of a subsidy identical to the one you already get with your cell phone. It's likely that HP is working with AT&T (they're reported to be talking), which announced a major strategic shift a couple of weeks ago that should result in AT&T stores selling nonphone gadgets that can take advantage of mobile broadband, including netbooks. What's more interesting is that low income and cheapskate buyers are starting to use iPhones as replacements or substitutes for netbook, notebook and even desktop PCs. The author's take: A very large number of people are increasingly looking to buy a single device — or, at least, subscribe to a single wireless account — for all their computing and communications needs, and at the lowest possible price."
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Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:5, Insightful)
The economy (U.S. and the world) has slowed. Why would Microsoft be bucking the trend?
Re:Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:5, Interesting)
Microsoft is regarded as a utility stock these days - in a recession, people still need computers as they aren't the luxury item they once were.
Also China and India are much bigger than USA and Europe, and those markets are still growing, at a slightly slower rate than before. That ought to more than counteract any decline in western economies.
Parent
Re:Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:5, Insightful)
Lots of talk of late about moving to less frequent refresh cycles. The bathtub graph of failures is more like a hockey stick, and the PCs in place have the processing power to meet people's needs throughout the current fiscal difficulty.
Software support is of course an issue, but there are no fixes for this either on offer or projected through FY2011.
Parent
Re:Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:4, Interesting)
Somebody doesn't like you in moderator land but you're perfectly right -- though I wouldn't dig all the way back to the PIII and the PII is way too far. I'm a packrat and even I have given up on stuff that old. That an OS is useful on hardware that old is no longer even indicative of what it can do on the lowest power modern gear. It's of historical interest, and embedded platform interest, only. Maybe as unit tests for prelaunch satellites, though I understand they prefer BSD.
The Atom PC at 35 watts is ideal for emerging markets, cheapo PHBs and treehuggers. It runs all the decent business software just fine, works with the latest technologies like SATA and PCIe, and burns less coal-powered watts than the dimmest desk lamp bulb. In comparison a P4 3.6GHz blows enough amps to power a pair of hot halogen floods.
This is important in the US if you want to evince energy independence. It's even more important in emerging markets where if you want to build out a call center you have to provide the watts yourself.
But the Atom not only doesn't run Windows Vista well - it doesn't run it in any acceptable way and Windows 7 will be "less bad" but still not useful.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Not a single game since Crysis came out comes close to taxing the system
Ever try FlightSim 10?
The guys who run it, also run a pile of addons like real world weather, ATC, virtual 3d cockpits and the rest.
Even FS9 on directx 9 sucks on a 3.2P4 with 2gb ram with the best 3D card - maybe 20fps.
FS10 or FSX as it is known, can barely do 10fps.
3D card/systems comparisons generally avoid the FS game as it is very demanding on all systems.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Even firms that nee
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
"Also China and India are much bigger than USA and Europe, and those markets are still growing, at a slightly slower rate than before. That ought to more than counteract any decline in western economies."
Yes, but in China a copy of windows can be purchased for 5-10 RMB (about $.80-$1.20). Some of the people I work for went on a quest for a legitimate copy of Windows and Office. Here on a campus of over 50,000 people there was not a single legitimate copy, not one.
The quest continued. What we finally discove
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft is regarded as a utility stock these days - in a recession, people still need computers as they aren't the luxury item they once were.
I'd argue that anybody doing this is making a mistake. Utility stocks tend to be stable because it takes some massive changes for somebody to use less water, fewer kwh, lower amounts of gas during the winter, etc...
In comparison, not paying the microsoft tax is rather easy. Simply stop buying a computer every 2 years, extend it to 3. If you're on a 3-4 year schedule, extend it a year or two.
Don't buy the vista upgrade. Consider Linux for your business.
Microsoft is about as much a utility as a car manufa
Re:Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:4, Informative)
They never followed the standards before, why would they start now?
Parent
Re:Why make it more complicated than it really is? (Score:5, Insightful)
Because it really is a part of a trend. I just got one of the el-cheapo Acer Aspire one. It's got a 160gig drive, a dual core processor, a 1024X400 screen that is brighter than any laptop I have ever seen (LED instead of the crappy CFL as well.
This thing is really fast, really small, and cost me less than $350.00 at WALMART of all places. It does more and has better specs than my new Dell laptop from 2 years ago and cost 1/4 the price.
Microsoft better be scared, because the high end one like this has XP on it and not vista. and that is how it was marketed to me, "you want these laptops because they do not come with vistal.. Vista is something you want to stay away from."
Yes it's walmart, but even if the minimum wage know nothing about computers sales guy at walmart is telling people that vista sucks, then it is hurting microsoft... And I bought the high end aspire one.. most of them come with linux (a variant that sucks) and with ubuntu having a distro coming out just for these tiny pc's that is brain dead easy to install from a thumb drive, I can see joe sixpack installing ubuntu on his new pocket sized laptop he got for cheap.
Parent
Chill dude. (Score:4, Insightful)
It's slashdot, don't take it so seriously. You're allowed to say M$. You're allowed to hang out here when the pub's shut and there's nothing on TV.
Vista is a failure by most standards and Microsoft's OS monopoly is gradually being eroded. This recession is helping.
Vista only "sells" because PeeCees come with it installed by default. Don't kid yourself that the situation has changed in the last few years. MS still has a monopoly and uses every dirty trick in the book to keep competing operating systems off of new machines.
Also, remember that a substantial proportion of new (Vista) machines get reinstalled with Windows XP legally or not.
Never mind, the future is bright. Windows 7 will come with 256 threads, comrade. Double-plus good!
My Communist-Anti-American-Virus-Cancer Linux PeeCees eat 256 threads for breakfast. So do my All-American Sun SPARC/Solaris boxes. 10 lines of C says so.
I don't like Microsoft, and I hate Windows. Bill Gates, Steve Balmer et. al. are a bunch of crooks. I'm human, I have opinions. Twitter's cool. It's allowed opinions, and it's nice to see them amongst the pro-M$ apology this site has become.
Parent
Re:Chill dude. (Score:5, Informative)
I have not confused cores with threads. Cores are simply individual CPUs integrated on to a chip. AMD and intel are currently up to 4 on a chip. Sun does 8 on a chip (with 8 thread contexts per core).
Solaris, Linux and many other unixes have been scaling (not merely being just "aware of") many more that 256 CPUs (call them cores) for well over a decade.
Do some googling. Solaris especially and linux scale almost linearly to thousands of CPUs per system today. To say that Windows' performance is embarrassing in this respect would be an understatement.
Parent
Re:You should not. (Score:5, Insightful)
180 million sales! And at least some of those were actually activated and are actually in use!
Microsoft have the precise number of Vista machines in the wild - it's the number hitting the Windows Update servers. But they don't push that number, they push the "licenses shipped" number, which is meaningless in a world with legally allowed XP upgrades.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Why does an effectively untraceable pseudonym confer any more credibility than being explicitly anonymous?
Re:You should not. (Score:4, Insightful)
And how many sales of Vista would there be if Microsoft didn't have a de facto monopoly and could force that steaming load of overripe cheese onto practically every new computer sold in the world?
Not 180 million but maybe 180 thousand.
Vista is a failure because very few people would choose it. The vast majority of sales were forced on people regardless of what they would choose, and I can guarantee most of those sales would not happen if customers didn't have a choice.
I'm glad the Netbooks are hurting Microsoft because Microsoft does nothing but damage the industry and stagnates the state of the art. They are a boat anchor on the whole technical industry and the sooner their monopoly is broken, the better we will all be.
Parent
Re:You should not. (Score:4, Informative)
Uh,you DO know that MSFT counts a downgrade as Vista,right? Or that places like Tigerdirect are bragging on new machines "With XP Pro Downgrade Preinstalled!"? As a guy running a little PC shop in AR,and who has worked in repair shops off and on since the days of Win3.11 I can tell you I have NEVER in all my years seen so many folks coming in just to say "Please get this damned thing off my PC and put on XP!". And I mean never.
Even with the suck of WinME we didn't have to deal with as many folks wanting to downgrade to an older MSFT OS as I have had to with Vista. I even know a guy who chunked his laptop out his 3rd story window into the dumpster below and bought a Mac that afternoon because Vista had pissed him off one too many times. And I have gotten to the point that I tell folks $250 when they ask me to switch their sub-$600 laptop from Vista to XP just because I'm sick and tired of trying to find drivers for those damned cheap crappy Vista laptops. And thanks to MSFT keeping the price high on retail copies I really wouldn't be surprised if most of those laptops I refuse to touch probably end up with hot XP put on them by someone else.
Personally I don't care what they do with them because I'm staying busy with all the new PCs folks want built so they can have a new XP machine. You know it is bad when folks go out of their way to have someone like me build them a PC for higher cost than they would pay Dell simply because they don't want the latest from MSFT. So whether the perception from the public is based on hearsay or not,I can tell you that I couldn't give away a copy of Vista if I tried. Folks just don't want it around here. And it never fails that when folks come into the shop complaining about how much they hate their new Dell,Compaq,HP,etc and need it fixed I say "You got Vista'd,didn't you!" and they say "Yeah,I got Vista'd real hard and I HATE IT! Please make this damn thing go away!". So at least from my perspective MSFT's stupidity is my gain.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
It's not true by any measure.
Guess again. MSFT shares have been declining since Ballmer got the job.
-jcr
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
While I too am hopeful of MS's comeuppance, at least to some degree, their share price is largely a reflection of their shitty dividend policy. MS hasn't accepted the fact that they are now a value stock, like any other blue chip, and not a growth stock. They need to raise their dividends to reflect this, or the market will continue to punish them.
MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:4, Interesting)
I was talking to a friend at work about this. We basically felt the same way--Microsoft will eventually either have to cut significant costs so that it can afford to sell Windows for $10-25 per copy (even if it's a reduced version for netbooks) or move to a Software as a Service (SaaS) model. Microsoft could charge $10 to OEMs (maybe $50 retail) upfront, then require a subscription to get updates other than security updates. It could move to a "new big feature" once or twice a year that only subscribers can get.
It's a little farfetched, I know, but it seems the way to go these days. I'd rather pay $50 upfront and then $10 per month for four years than pay $400 upfront at retail. On a netbook, I think it wouldn't be unreasonable for Microsoft to offer something like Box.net on-line storage/backup as part of the subscription, too, especially for netbooks, which, like phones, are more prone to being lost/stolen than larger laptops and desktops.
Not farfetched (Score:5, Insightful)
They are salivating while trying to make it work. Their MOLP"s are almost that and part of their core revenue stream.
Parent
Re:MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:5, Insightful)
People are not going to pay for updates. It is difficult enough to persuade people to load updates when they are free.
Parent
Re:MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:5, Insightful)
Ultimately, though, it just comes down to the fact that cheaper hardware demands cheaper software. 50 or 100 dollars for windows is noticable; but not hugely important in a $2000 computer. 50 dollars for windows on a netbook probably means the difference between impulse purchase and not. I don't think that this will affect MS's market share directly, they can afford to give away XP for netbooks until the end of time, if they want to. Their margins, though, will suffer, and that could be quite serious for some of their divisions. Being able to start a project and let it absolutely hemorrhage money for years if need be gives MS impressive strategic freedom. If their margins on Windows and Office suffer, they won't be able to do that anymore.
Parent
Re:MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:5, Insightful)
$400 for Windows is too much, the OEMs pay much less.
Also the last thing I need is another monthy bill. I have a Trac Phone to avoid that (could easily afford the iPhone but not justify the monthly rate). My used car is bought outright. Other necessary bills minimized, especially in this economy. Etcetera.
Once windows becomes subsciption: it will either be structured in such a way (updates as you describe) that most people don't bother thus lose money anyway, or many people start migrating away which is exactly what they don't want. It would be the beginning of Linux as a mainstream desktop OS.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:5, Interesting)
> Microsoft could charge $10 to OEMs (maybe $50 retail) upfront, then require a subscription to get updates other than security updates.
Yea, it could. But they currently get $32 for XP on a netbook and as much as $80 for a basic Vista. Big OEMs like Dell pay less (exact amount secret) and some machines that ship with more expensive versions of Vista pay more. The point being that even if your idea could work it would be a fatal hit to their bottom line. If they can't tap people for at least $5 a month a subscription model is going to be seen by Wall Street (rightly) as a lot less profitable than the current model.
The problem is that the only way people might pony up that kind of coin is they actually get something major, not just fixes to product defects. Even giving access to every Microsoft non-game product wouldn't induce many people to put up with a monthly subscription.
> I'd rather pay $50 upfront and then $10 per month for four years than pay $400 upfront at retail.
If they could still clip people for $50 up front they would have a future. Good luck convincing an OEM to put a $50 component into a product destined to retail for $200 or less. That is the world that is coming and it terrifies Microsoft. As the hardware cost for a basic network node approaches zero the software cost must do likewise, the days of selling the basic operating system, browser and office suite are coming to a close. And as computers become consumer electronics the reality of that transition is just being realized by the soon to be former PC makers. So both the current hardware makers and Microsoft are desperately trying to find some way to survive and would just love to transition to a subscription model in some sort of joint venture with the telcos/ISPs. Laptops/netbooks might end up tethered to a cell modem and a monthy bill but neither Dell nor Microsoft are needed by the telcos. They would rather buy the machines direct from China themselves and pocket the profits.
> On a netbook, I think it wouldn't be unreasonable for Microsoft to offer something like Box.net on-line storage/backup
> as part of the subscription..
Pay for a net based service? Surely you jest. ASUS is already giving it away for free now.
Parent
Re:MSFT goes SaaS? (Score:4, Informative)
Parent
DamnSmallWindows (Score:2, Insightful)
tamed the eeepc??? (Score:3, Interesting)
funny though how with my eeepc 901 they have a section in the manual at the end guiding users on how to get back to a windows installation. not certain if it correlates with their statements on "no one is buying these linux laptops" or not, but id be curious to see an unbiased (read: not in bed with redmond) party evaluate whether anyone is buying laptops with linux.
the one thing redmond cant fight on this is i believe price. as a wise man once said, "if your going up against 'free' you'd better have a damned good product."
microsoft (with a $) (Score:3, Insightful)
people want to use their computers, not be used by a corporate giant and third parties nickeling & dimeing them to the limit at every corner...
The best thing since sliced bread (Score:4, Interesting)
My Linux-based eee 901 is the best computer I ever had. The Atom chip sucks compared to the multicore CPUs in my other computers. Its SSD is tiny compared to massive 1TB drives I have in other computers. Its graphics capabilities suck compared to my game desktop. But (a biiig but) it is so
lightweight that I carry it with me all the time, and the battery lasts me a full day! In a month I have been assimilated and now am part of the
symbiotic Me-and-my-EEE borg. It is amazing to be able to have a real computer with me even in the toilet. The Nokia 800 tablet was the closest I got before to this but it was not a full-capability computer, and it showed. There is reason for Microsoft to be scared because they see resistance will be futile. I sometimes walk while typing on my EEE without fear of breaking my hard drive. I always drive with my EEE on the dashboard. More powerful netbooks miss the whole point. They are just laptops, maybe cheaper and less heavy, but not good enough for assimilation.
Attacked from two ends... (Score:3, Insightful)
Combine the netbook and OS X trends with the Linux becoming increasingly easy to use for novices and a worldwide recession, and one has problems brewing for Microsoft. Not fatal problems, to be sure, but problems nonetheless, and problems whose solution is not obvious.
Bah! Orion Blastar begs to differ. (Score:3)
In consumer electronic stores there are $350 Laptops (after rebate) with Intel Graphic chips and 2G of RAM a 120G HD. that run Vista and cost less than a Netbook.
The $350 Laptop can easily be reformatted to run XP, Linux, AROS, or whatever.
If it is an open box special you can get one for as low as $300.
Can you stick it in your briefcase? (Score:3, Insightful)
In consumer electronic stores there are $350 Laptops (after rebate) with Intel Graphic chips and 2G of RAM a 120G HD. that run Vista and cost less than a Netbook
Handbag?
Or is it 30cmx30cm, weighing in at 3kg?
Re: (Score:2)
Considering how easy it is to image a disk for identical machines, those are some well-paid children. Better paid than you, I would imagine.
Unless you're saying that that's what development costs, in which case, I'd say those are some well-educated children...
Re:Correction (Score:5, Funny)
The children are not paid to install the software on the machines.
They are paid to drag the crates of machines up out of the mine.
Parent
Re:Correction (Score:4, Insightful)
Equipping Linux on a computer, USING CHILD LABOR IN CHINA, costs $5 each.
Linux. So easy, even children can install it!
Parent
Wrong (Score:3, Informative)
Normal labour doesn't even cost that much in China.
Even with a brain dead CD installation method I'm sure you can install Linux on more than 10 computers in one day. Low cost labour in China doesn't cost USD50/day.
A decent ready-made meal probably only costs USD1.
Yes most chinese workers can't affor
Re:Wrong (Score:5, Insightful)
It's kind of ironic how it's been the Chinese who have been financing so many Americans to be able to live beyond their means as described above.
Parent
Re:Mmm... (Score:5, Insightful)
I stared to a Asus Eee thing a while ago running Windows XP. Just the idea of running XP on that machine along with Antivirus, Firewall and only the software updates horrified me.
If the companies put XP as option to them, it is not like they are getting it free (or dirt cheap), it is because they are very afraid of Microsoft.
If you are World's one of the most respected mainboard manufacturers (Asus) and you started to gain ground with your Laptops, you don't want to make Microsoft mad. MS can provide a single buggy driver update and create chaos in your customerbase. All they need to say "oops" after it. Customers will blame YOU, not them.
Parent
Re:The troll, the legend (Score:5, Informative)
While twitter may be a PITA,and his talking to himself with sockpuppets is just....well,it is pretty obvious the guy needs mental help, this does point out something I've been saying for a long time: MSFT is pricing their goods WAY too freaking high! $99 for XP Home? $199 for XP Pro? Is there ANYBODY else who charges THAT much for software THAT old? The MSRP retail hasn't changed since it came out in '01! And then they total crazy BS of Vista,with its,what? Six different versions? And the cheapest one is STILL $100? Totally freaking crazy.
If MSFT doesn't want to get their asses handed to them they better learn to accept normal profit margins on their software. Not to mention giving the public what they want. I mean,have you EVER heard of any other company killing off a product that was still selling quite well after 7 years? Most companies would kill for a product like that!
Mark my words: The netbooks and nettops are going to take up a serious chunk of the lowend. Because with even a half ass GPU added(so they can play High Def vids) they will do everything your average Joe wants to do with his machine. Last year when I walked through the college I saw full size laptops everywhere. Now I see very few full size while everyone has a netbook sitting on their lap. If MSFT doesn't learn to take a normal profit like everyone else then the custom Linux distros like the EEE Xandros(which is the most popular model at the local college) are going to seriously kick their ass. After all,they have a couple of years old desktop at home to run their Windows software on,so why should they pay so much more just for an old MSFT product?
Parent
Re:The troll, the legend (Score:5, Insightful)
But Microsoft don't make much money on home sales or oem sales (its something like $10-$20) they make their money on corporate sales, which are unaffected by the netbook trend. So this article IS just twitter bullshit.
And this isn't the 1st time timothy has been caught.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Yeah,nice idea,but MSFT purposely boned the netbooks so as not to take business from their Vista Business offering. XP Home lacks AD login,most of the Group Policy settings,etc. See this link [winsupersite.com] for a list of differences. Pretty worthless in a business setting. On the other hand the Xandros EEE is just Xandros with a different shell. Now I don't know if they based it on Xandros Home or Business,but I can tell you from experience that Xandros Business plays REAL nice with Windows server based networks. I've nev
Re:The troll, the legend (Score:5, Interesting)
Monopoly, meet perceived value.
Before MaBell was broken up, only Bell System phones could be connected to the phone line. And they charged arms and legs for that phone. Why? One, you didn't have alternatives, and two, if they charged too little, then customers wouldn't appreciate the service as much.
The price of something has very little to do with cost, especially in software. How much is an accounting program worth it to you? How much is it worth to a business? What if that software cost $20,000, and runs only on Windows with no alternatives? $200 is cheap in comparison.
Add to this the fact that OS is bundled with the computer (no direct means of perceiving the cost), it's very wise to set the retail price high. See, our product must be good to cost that much.
As much as I like GNU/Linux (3/4 of my boxes boot Linux), for most people, it's worth paying the $100 -$200 to get an OS that runs all the other popular software.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
.
AT&T in its prime delivered the best telephone service in the world - and, because your phone was leased - not sold - it was built to last.
It is almost trivially easy to find handsome - and still functional - examples from the 1930s,
Re:The troll, the legend (Score:5, Insightful)
Some companies do that when they feel that they need to make progress and their current product is holding back. Apple did it when they killed their iPod mini line even though it was their best selling line of iPods. Apple could see that flash was the wave of the future for smaller MP3 players and moved towards it. Unlike MS, Apple provided a better product at the same price. MS provided a product that was superior in some ways and inferior in others. However the cost was higher factoring hardware requirements. For those upgrading on older machines, Vista was not an improvement.
Parent
Re:People know what computers are now (Score:5, Insightful)
and people know how to use them.
After working for a university help desk, I can tell you with a great deal of certainty that this is quite false.
And I still think of a directory as a "folder" because pretty much all of my software refers to it as that. All the icons are of little folders, my file manager has a "make new folder" command, lots of programs I use have a command along the lines of "open folder". You know, maybe this is just proving that I'm some sort of "child clinging to my woobie," but I'm honestly not sure what the hell any of your points are.
Parent
Re:People know what computers are now (Score:4, Insightful)
That is funny.
I deal with only degree holding education professionals for tech support. and Most do not know how to use a computer. they completely freak out when they lose a "folder" and they bork their Office or Outlook all the time by deleting a toolbar or doing something else that is trivial to fix.
Most people, including highly educated people DO NOT know how to use a computer. They can barely operate them.
Parent
Re:Yeah, I'm seeing these everywhere (Score:4, Funny)
Thanks for letting us know. Hey everyone, the entire planet is where 93escortwagon is!
I'll tell all the students at the MSU and UofM campuses that they cant use the eee's and aspire one's I see all over the place, because you said so..
Have you proven that the universe revolves around you yet? we are all waiting with baited breath.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
I bet you have no windows in the basement?
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Really? show me where to buy a G4 iBook with 1 gig in it for $350.00 in new shape with a new battery and 160gig hard drive.
Oh and make it very portable and have a very bright screen instead of the very yellowed ones that G4's are known for when they are used.
Also the G3 toilet seats are incredibly slow compared to these netbooks, and again only come with dead batteries and no ram or hard drive space.